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Mesoscale Discussion 1248
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1248
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0218 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/SWRN NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 301918Z - 302145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR A FEW ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/SWRN NY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...POCKETS OF INSOLATION/SFC HEATING IN THE WAKE OF
   EARLIER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE ARE SUPPORTING MODEST
   DESTABILIZATION WITHIN AN OTHERWISE POOR-LAPSE-RATE PROFILE IN THE
   TROPOSPHERE. WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CAPPING WILL
   SUPPORT CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SMALL MID-LEVEL
   PERTURBATIONS ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW AROUND THE BROADER
   ERN-CONUS TROUGH PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS. THE BUF VWP SAMPLES AROUND
   20-25 KT OF FLOW IN THE 1-5-KM LAYER THAT MAY FOSTER LOOSELY
   ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS.
   THE LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY AND LACK OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK FROM EVOLVING.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 06/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   42167818 42637818 43117746 43087585 42477550 42097601
               42167818 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2015
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