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Mesoscale Discussion 1249
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1249
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0815 PM CDT TUE JUL 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN/CNTRL OH...FAR WRN WV...NERN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 020115Z - 020345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND
   UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO SWRN/CNTRL OHIO
   ARE CONGEALING WITHIN THE NRN FLANK OF A BROADER MCS WHOSE LEADING
   CONVECTIVE LINE EXTENDS SWWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS AIDED BY 20-30 KT OF
   MID-LEVEL FLOW -- STRONGEST STEERING-LAYER FLOW N OF THE OHIO RIVER
   PER AREA RAOBS/VWPS. WHILE THE WILMINGTON OHIO 00Z RAOB SAMPLES
   AROUND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...THE CONVECTIVE-LINE-PARALLEL
   ORIENTATION TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT RELATED OUTFLOW WILL
   HAVE A TENDENCY OF OUTPACING PARENT CONVECTION YIELDING AN
   ANAFRONTAL FLOW REGIME REDUCING ANY SVR RISK. MEANWHILE...NOCTURNAL
   STABILIZATION SHOULD BE DELETERIOUS TO PROLONGED MAINTENANCE OF
   STRONGER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS REACH/CROSS THE OHIO
   RIVER. REGARDLESS...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL
   BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   38818386 40208291 40968116 40518084 39648120 37858285
               37598492 38818386 

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Page last modified: July 02, 2014
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