|Mesoscale Discussion 1249|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1249
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2017
Areas affected...Portions of eastern CO...northwestern KS...and far
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 062332Z - 070130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds and perhaps some hail will remain
possible this evening with a cluster of thunderstorms moving slowly
southeastward. Watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms that developed this afternoon across
western NE along a weak surface boundary/wind shift have congealed
into a loosely organized cluster across far southwestern NE into
northwestern KS over the past hour. Northwesterly mid-level flow
around 25-30 kt and a strongly veering wind profile are supporting
around 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear and some storm organization.
A very well-mixed boundary layer characterized by 40-50 F surface
temperature-dewpoint spreads will encourage efficient transfer of
convectively enhanced downdraft winds to the surface. Isolated
damaging winds should be the main threat with this multicell cluster
as it moves southeastward across northwestern KS through the
remainder of the evening within a weakly unstable airmass, although
some hail may also occur with the strongest cores. The marginal
thermodynamic and kinematic environment will likely limit a more
robust/widespread severe threat, and watch issuance is not expected.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 39100346 40090279 40300168 40270040 39530011 38780045
38410228 38530322 39100346
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