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Mesoscale Discussion 1249
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1249
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0632 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern CO...northwestern KS...and far
   southwestern NE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 062332Z - 070130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds and perhaps some hail will remain
   possible this evening with a cluster of thunderstorms moving slowly
   southeastward. Watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms that developed this afternoon across
   western NE along a weak surface boundary/wind shift have congealed
   into a loosely organized cluster across far southwestern NE into
   northwestern KS over the past hour. Northwesterly mid-level flow
   around 25-30 kt and a strongly veering wind profile are supporting
   around 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear and some storm organization.
   A very well-mixed boundary layer characterized by 40-50 F surface
   temperature-dewpoint spreads will encourage efficient transfer of
   convectively enhanced downdraft winds to the surface. Isolated
   damaging winds should be the main threat with this multicell cluster
   as it moves southeastward across northwestern KS through the
   remainder of the evening within a weakly unstable airmass, although
   some hail may also occur with the strongest cores. The marginal
   thermodynamic and kinematic environment will likely limit a more
   robust/widespread severe threat, and watch issuance is not expected.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/06/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39100346 40090279 40300168 40270040 39530011 38780045
               38410228 38530322 39100346 

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