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Mesoscale Discussion 1250
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1250
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0315 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372...377...378...

   VALID 302015Z - 302215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   372...377...378...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREAS.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM PARTS OF ERN PA TO
   CNTRL NC WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF 500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. AREA VWPS
   SUGGEST THAT 25-40 KT OF DEEP SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER
   ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TRANSIENT
   SUPERCELLS -- ESPECIALLY IN NRN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC /PA AND
   NJ/ WHERE SFC WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL
   SRH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL
   WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT IN ERN PA AND NJ. SFC SLY/SSELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER
   INLAND INFLUXES OF OCEAN-MODIFIED AIR WITH WEAKER BUOYANCY --
   PROBABLY RESULTING IN SOME WEAKENING OF CONVECTION AS IT NEARS THE
   COAST.

   ..COHEN.. 06/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   35827989 38417787 41567627 41667446 41447422 40687438
               39417512 37667621 35207818 34897939 35827989 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2015
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