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Mesoscale Discussion 1250
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1250
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0832 PM CDT TUE JUL 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL KY...MIDDLE/WRN TN...FAR NWRN
   AL...FAR NRN MS...FAR ERN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 020132Z - 020400Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
   CROSSES PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND THE TN VALLEY REGION...THOUGH
   A FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT
   NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...AN MCS FROM CNTRL/WRN KY TO NERN AR EXHIBITS PRINCIPAL
   FORWARD PROPAGATION OVER S-CNTRL KY AND ADJACENT MIDDLE TN WITH THE
   TRAILING CONVECTIVE LINE EXTENDING WWD ACROSS WRN TN INTO FAR NERN
   AR. THE MAJORITY OF THIS LINE HAS BECOME PARALLEL TO MID-LEVEL WLYS
   OF 20-25 KT PER AREA VWPS AND 00Z BNA RAOB...WITH PRIMARY SEWD/SWD
   MOTION ACROSS TN AND NERN AR DRIVEN BY PROPAGATION INTO
   MODERATELY/STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR. AS THE PRE-CONVECTIVE AIR MASS
   EXPERIENCES NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
   WEAK...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG WIND
   GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT -- ESPECIALLY ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER -- IN
   THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35379085 35768846 36778654 37348511 36988450 35708608
               34908781 34759054 35379085 

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Page last modified: July 02, 2014
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