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Mesoscale Discussion 1250
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1250
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0943 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2017

   Areas affected...Wisconsin...portions of the southern Michigan Upper
   Peninsula and northwest lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400...

   Valid 070243Z - 070415Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for large hail and damaging winds continues
   across the remaining valid portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   400.  A bowing line of severe storms across Door County WI may enter
   northwest lower Michigan around 0330Z with at least a localized risk
   for damaging winds.  Trends in thunderstorm coverage across central
   Wisconsin are being monitored however the need for a downstream
   watch is not immediately evident.

   DISCUSSION...A bowing line of severe storms was moving southeast at
   40 kts across the northern Door Peninsula in northeast Wisconsin at
   0230Z with a history of marginally severe wind gusts and small hail.
    As this complex continues southeast in the vicinity of a diffuse
   northwest-southeast oriented outflow boundary from storms earlier
   today, some risk for damaging gusts may continue across northwest
   lower Michigan into the late evening hours.  With the onset of
   nocturnal cooling, some uncertainty remains regarding the potential
   longevity of this convective line as it moves across northwest lower
   Michigan within a gradient in MUCAPE, however radar/near-storm
   environmental trends will continue to be monitored.

   To the west of the bowing segment, a broken line of
   strong/occasionally severe thunderstorms extends west to vicinity of
   Rusk County Wisconsin.  In the presence of moderate elevated
   instability and 35-40 kts of deep-layer shear, the risk for isolated
   severe storms is expected to continue for at least a couple more
   hours, aided by ascent with a mid-level impulse moving southeast
   across the watch area.

   A third area of severe storms exhibiting supercell characteristics 
   was located over central Wisconsin at 0230Z with a history of
   large/isolated significant hail.  Left split-associated storm
   mergers have recently resulted in an increase in coverage as the
   storms move southeast within a moderate-strongly unstable
   environment and 30-35 kts of deep shear.  Latest high-resolution
   guidance suggests that the severe threat may remain somewhat
   focused/localized for the next couple of hours, casting some
   uncertainty on the need for a downstream watch.  Radar trends will
   be monitored for increasing organization of the thunderstorms across
   southern portions of Wisconsin this evening.

   ..Bunting.. 07/07/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   44809030 45159032 45319126 45539141 45679056 45698946
               45828880 45918815 45968751 45888684 45198572 44768541
               44308550 44038589 43928653 43728708 43178782 42908876
               42948973 43089047 43379114 43849126 44239090 44709036
               44809030 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2017
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