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Mesoscale Discussion 1251
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1251
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0325 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN AZ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 302025Z - 302200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN AZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
   ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN AZ WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FROM THE LOWER 50S F
   NEAR FLAGSTAFF TO THE MID 60S F NEAR TUCSON. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED ABOVE 1500 J/KG
   ACROSS MOST OF THE MCD AREA. AS CELLS CONTINUE TO INITIATE ALONG THE
   MOGOLLON RIM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...STRONG CONVECTION
   SHOULD EXPAND WSWWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN AZ. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
   LATE AFTERNOON FOR PHOENIX SHOW ELY FLOW OF 25 TO 35 KT ABOVE 700 MB
   WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. AS CELLS GROW
   UPSCALE AND DOWNDRAFTS MATURE...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS AS WELL.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 06/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   33550908 33930955 34161040 34571095 35131126 35541170
               35551214 35341258 34751297 34281313 33821293 33331263
               32771234 32291139 32441025 32890929 33550908 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2015
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