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Mesoscale Discussion 1251
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1251
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 PM CDT TUE JUL 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN NY AND NRN PA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 020447Z - 020545Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS CROSSING PORTIONS OF WRN NY AND NRN PA COULD
   PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST. A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS LOOSELY ORGANIZED INTO A SQUALL LINE
   FROM WRN NY INTO NWRN PA IN ADVANCE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
   IMPULSE CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AIDED BY MOIST
   INFLOW /E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F/. HOWEVER...MODIFICATIONS TO
   THE 00Z BUFFALO AND PITTSBURGH RAOBS SUGGEST ONLY MODEST BUOYANCY
   REMAINS BUT WITH AMPLE MLCINH AS STATIC STABILITY CONTINUES TO
   NOCTURNALLY GROW WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG
   WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THESE STORMS AIDED BY CONVECTIVE
   MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF 20-35 KT OF WLYS/WSWLYS IN THE 1-3-KM
   LAYER...DOWNDRAFT PENETRATION INTO THE STABLE PBL WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY AS FURTHER NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.
   FURTHERMORE...THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT AND LACK OF A MORE
   ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WILL GREATLY OFFSET ANY SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   42217861 43127727 42847664 42037704 41347817 41297939
               41597984 42217861 

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Page last modified: July 02, 2014
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