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Mesoscale Discussion 1252
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1252
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0333 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF KY/TN/NC/SC/GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 373...374...377...

   VALID 302033Z - 302230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   373...374...377...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREAS.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   ACROSS THE REGION FROM PARTS OF MIDDLE TN TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO
   THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS. A MORE PROMINENT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
   ORGANIZING INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE IS CROSSING PARTS OF
   CNTRL/SRN SC AND SERN GA. MODERATE INSTABILITY AIDED BY SFC TEMPS IN
   THE LOWER 90S AMIDST A MOISTURE-RICH PBL WILL ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO
   CONTINUE SPREADING TOWARD THE SC COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THIS
   ACTIVITY. IF CONFIDENCE WERE TO INCREASE THAT STRONGER ACTIVITY
   DEVELOPS NEWD INTO NERN SC AND SERN NC...THEN A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED
   IN THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
   CONTINUES WWD INTO CNTRL GA TO MIDDLE TN. THE PRESENCE OF 1000-2000
   J/KG OF MLCAPE WHERE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS NOT BEEN ABUNDANT
   WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE ORGANIZATION OF MULTICELL CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTERS GIVEN 20-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL WILL BE OF CONCERN WITH
   THESE TSTMS.

   ..COHEN.. 06/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...MRX...
   JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   32198360 34638411 35388557 36528516 36938428 36518338
               36408031 34818074 34237842 32738001 31898244 32198360 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2015
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