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Mesoscale Discussion 1252
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1252
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0928 AM CDT WED JUL 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN NY...VT...WRN
   MA/CT...CENTRAL/ERN PA...NRN/CENTRAL NJ...AND NRN MD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 021428Z - 021530Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
   FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
   MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
   LIKELY...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY
   BY LATE MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
   REGION...AND A SECOND UPSTREAM WAVE MOVING EWD THROUGH LOWER MI/NRN
   IND.  AN ATTENDANT BAND OF 50-60 KT SWLY 500 MB WINDS EXTENDS FROM
   THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO SRN QUEBEC PER 12Z SOUNDINGS...WITH THESE
   WINDS SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THE DAY AND SHIFT
   SOMEWHAT EWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...ENHANCING BULK SHEAR. 
   MOSAIC RADAR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED
   CU/TCU AND A FEW CB DEVELOPMENT ALREADY UNDERWAY FROM WRN/CENTRAL PA
   INTO CENTRAL NY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES...GIVEN ABUNDANT
   SURFACE HEATING PER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE PRE-CONVECTIVE
   ENVIRONMENT.  

   OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS ALREADY
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED.  THIS IS CONFIRMED PER
   MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z ALB SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE TEMP/
   DEWPOINT SHOWING NO INHIBITION AND MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG.  DESPITE
   VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH THE AIR MASS
   BECOMING STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND STRENGTHENING BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED STORMS FAVORING LINE SEGMENTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 
   TRANSIENT ROTATING STRUCTURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45 KT FROM NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER NWD THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 07/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   LWX...

   LAT...LON   43377591 42697672 41557817 40767856 39867837 39677787
               39617666 39797588 40887419 41547338 42467286 43937241
               44267256 44337406 44077509 43377591 

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Page last modified: July 02, 2014
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