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Mesoscale Discussion 1253
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1253
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0702 AM CDT Fri Jul 07 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern OH...northern WV Panhandle...and far
   western PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 071202Z - 071430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally strong/damaging wind gusts will remain possible
   this morning as a line of storms advances southeast at 35-40 kt
   across eastern OH through 13-14Z (9-10 AM EDT).  These storms should
   reach northwest PA (Mercer and Lawrence counties around 13Z (9 AM
   EDT) and into the northern WV Panhandle and southwest PA around or
   after 14Z (10 AM EDT).

   WW issuance is unlikely in the short term, though convective trends
   will be monitored for an increase in storm intensities and/or
   forward storm movement (e.g. exceeding 40 kt) that would warrant WW
   issuance later this morning into western PA.

   DISCUSSION...At 1155Z, mosaic radar imagery showed a line of storms
   extending from Knox County to Cuyahoga County and then over Lake
   Erie (approximately 35 NNE CLE), and moving to the southeast at
   35-40 kt.  At this speed, locally strong and/or damaging wind gusts
   will be possible.  Current objective analyses downstream across
   eastern OH into western PA indicated a more stable air mass, with
   surface observations also detecting fog at several locations across
   the discussion area.  Meanwhile, visible satellite imagery suggested
   the onset of diabatic heating, except from southeast OH into far
   southwest PA where skies are overcast, should allow for gradual
   steepening of surface-3 km lapse rates through this morning.  This
   could enhance the potential for stronger winds to reach the surface.

   ..Peters/Guyer.. 07/07/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   40248251 41078206 41548152 41628123 41588057 41407999
               41227979 40807987 40258006 39808033 39798103 39928183
               40248251 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2017
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