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Mesoscale Discussion 1253
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1253
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...SW ND...WRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 302049Z - 302215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO EARLY EVENING AS CELLS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE. LARGE
   HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. WW
   ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007 MB LOW OVER ERN MT
   WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE SFC LOW INTO
   WRN SD. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F ALONG THE SFC
   TROUGH WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED WITH MLCAPE IN THE
   1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...SFC WINDS ARE FROM THE
   SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT WITH REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS
   SHOWING UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. 0-6
   K SHEAR IS ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 45 TO 55 KT RANGE SUGGESTING THE
   ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. CELLS
   ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS
   AND MOVE SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM ERN MT INTO FAR SW ND
   AND WRN SD. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
   WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE GREATEST WITH CELLS THAT CAN
   ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS...PERSISTING AND DEVELOPING SEWD INTO WRN SD.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 06/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   43230138 43710072 44320061 44860094 45540190 46450303
               47030339 47690380 48210435 48430521 48450562 48350597
               47990618 47250612 45850580 45120533 44670455 43800396
               43260289 43230138 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2015
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