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Mesoscale Discussion 1253
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1253
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1105 AM CDT WED JUL 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MD AND VA/PARTS OF ERN WV AND NRN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 021605Z - 021700Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF MD AND VA...AND
   PORTIONS OF ERN WV AND PERHAPS NRN NC THIS AFTERNOON.  TSTMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN WV INTO MD
   AND NRN/CENTRAL VA.  MORE ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
   FARTHER SWD INTO NRN NC.  STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY
   PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

   DISCUSSION...MODIFIED 12Z IAD SOUNDING WITH CURRENT SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES ALREADY RISING TO AROUND 90 F WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH
   ENVIRONMENT RESULTS IN NO INHIBITION FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS...WITH
   SBCAPE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG.  THIS INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY BEING
   REALIZED WITH THE TSTMS THAT HAVE FORMED IN ERN WV /TUCKER COUNTY/
   INTO THE WRN MD PANHANDLE /GARRETT AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES/. 
   MEANWHILE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CU FORMING ACROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS SWD FROM PA TO NERN TN/WRN NC...AND WITHIN A NNE-SSW
   CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NRN/WRN VA TO WRN NC.  GIVEN
   THE UNCAPPED AND VERY STRONG INSTABILITY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH.

   STRONGEST MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE GREAT LAKES/OH
   VALLEY TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
   WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.  MULTICELL STORM MODE
   CAN BE EXPECTED...THOUGH SOME TRANSIENT ROTATING STRUCTURES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN WV THROUGH NRN VA AND MD...WHERE DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 07/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

   LAT...LON   36648146 38207979 39637850 39697694 39627600 38967600
               37447650 36577731 35847962 36028185 36648146 

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Page last modified: July 02, 2014
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