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Mesoscale Discussion 1254
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1254
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 AM CDT WED JUL 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA/NJ/SERN NY INCLUDING PARTS OF LONG
   ISLAND/CT/RI/MA AND SRN NH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 021645Z - 021745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INTO THE
   MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS
   BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  WW
   ISSUANCE IS LIKELY FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND SWD TO NJ...SERN PA AND
   PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES
   ALREADY AT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AROUND NOON IN THE UPPER 80S TO
   LOWER 90S FROM SERN PA AND NJ NWD TO NH.  THIS HEATING OCCURRING
   WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT /PW VALUES OF 1.7
   TO NEAR 2 INCHES/ HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO NEW ENGLAND.  EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM WEST TO EAST AND BECOME
   SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS.  THESE
   FACTORS WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 07/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39487408 38337511 38427576 38657637 39107637 41507435
               44277191 43827099 42397084 41657101 40917195 40407328
               40367355 39487408 

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Page last modified: July 02, 2014
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