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Mesoscale Discussion 1255
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1255
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0141 PM CDT WED JUL 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND NRN LA / CNTRL - NRN AND SWRN
   MS / EXTREME SERN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 021841Z - 022015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
   DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 
   WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 1830Z SHOWS A CU FIELD
   FROM ERN TX NEWD INTO CNTRL MS AHEAD OF A SEWD-MOVING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM EXTREME SERN AR SWWD TO 25 MI SW SHV.  THIS
   BOUNDARY BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE WITH SWWD EXTENT OVER NWRN LA.
   18Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO OR EXCEEDED
   90 DEG F WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS.  MODIFYING THE 12Z RAOBS FROM SHV
   AND JAN FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS RESULTS IN A VERY UNSTABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER /2700-3800 J PER KG MLCAPE/ AND ESSENTIALLY THE
   REMOVAL OF ANY APPRECIABLE REMAINING CINH.  ALTHOUGH TROPOSPHERIC
   WINDS ARE WEAK...HIGH PW AND 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES 8-9 DEG C PER WILL
   SUPPORT WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL.  LOCALIZED POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE
   ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS AS STORMS MATURE. 
   RELATIVELY COOL H5 TEMPS /-9 TO -10 DEG C/ OBSERVED ON THE MORNING
   RAOBS MAY FOSTER A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE
   STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES.  IF A SEMI-CONGEALED CLUSTER OF STORMS CAN
   EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT HR OR SO...THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SMALL SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH AHEAD AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORMS MAY BE
   CONSIDERED.

   ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 07/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   34299150 34499044 34238917 33398853 31748927 30709030
               30419217 30719344 31639377 32299365 32859231 33389138
               34299150 

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Page last modified: July 02, 2014
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