|Mesoscale Discussion 1255|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1255
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CDT Fri Jul 07 2017
Areas affected...northern into east-central IN...west-central and
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401...
Valid 071522Z - 071615Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401
SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorm intensification will likely
require further boundary layer heating and more storm-scale
organization for the wind damage threat to increase.
DISCUSSION...Subjective surface mesoanalysis places a decaying
outflow boundary from south-central OH northwestward into northwest
OH where the gradient becomes less defined. An appreciably
moist/unstable airmass resides near and to the west of the outflow
with surface temperatures rising into the lower 80s degrees F with
lower 70s dewpoints. Forecast soundings across eastern IN and
western OH show temperatures warming into the upper 80s by early to
mid afternoon which will contribute to a more unstable boundary
Adjustments on the storm-scale will probably be required for the
wind-damage risk to increase in the near term across portions of
east-central IN and west-central OH. A gust front has become
slightly displaced to the south and southwest of the ongoing
thunderstorm activity. Once deeper updrafts develop today (echo
tops increasing from 35-40 kft to 40-50 kft), it will signal more
vigorous thunderstorms and a corresponding uptick in the severe risk
will probably materialize.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 39548496 41098677 41618656 41418426 40798261 40058229
39188279 38988353 39548496
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