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Mesoscale Discussion 1255
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1255
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0531 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THRU SERN WY...ADJACENT NEB PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 302231Z - 010030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE
   IN SCATTERED STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS/OVERSPREADING THE
   REGION INTO THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH INITIATED ACROSS THE
   MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST WYOMING ARE GENERALLY MAINTAINING INTENSITY
   AS THEY PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING.  THIS IS
   BEING AIDED BY 20-30 KT NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW ON THE
   NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT BASIN SUBTROPICAL HIGH...AND
   PERHAPS WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE
   EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS.

   IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
   SUPERCELLS...AND WEAK TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY...AT
   LEAST SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE.  IT
   IS NOT CLEAR THAT LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A
   SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN NUMBER OF STORMS...OR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. 
   NORTHWESTERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE STORMS IS LESS
   THAN OPTIMAL...BUT A STRONGLY HEATED AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
   PROBABLY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS...IN
   ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL....PARTICULARLY
   ALONG/NEAR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE MOUNTAINS.

   ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 06/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   42720888 43760830 43630629 42520283 40800394 41040594
               42060771 42720888 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2015
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