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Mesoscale Discussion 1255
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1255
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1022 AM CDT Fri Jul 07 2017

   Areas affected...northern into east-central IN...west-central and
   central OH

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401...

   Valid 071522Z - 071615Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorm intensification will likely
   require further boundary layer heating and more storm-scale
   organization for the wind damage threat to increase.

   DISCUSSION...Subjective surface mesoanalysis places a decaying
   outflow boundary from south-central OH northwestward into northwest
   OH where the gradient becomes less defined.  An appreciably
   moist/unstable airmass resides near and to the west of the outflow
   with surface temperatures rising into the lower 80s degrees F with
   lower 70s dewpoints.  Forecast soundings across eastern IN and
   western OH show temperatures warming into the upper 80s by early to
   mid afternoon which will contribute to a more unstable boundary
   layer.

   Adjustments on the storm-scale will probably be required for the
   wind-damage risk to increase in the near term across portions of
   east-central IN and west-central OH.  A gust front has become
   slightly displaced to the south and southwest of the ongoing
   thunderstorm activity.  Once deeper updrafts develop today (echo
   tops increasing from 35-40 kft to 40-50 kft), it will signal more
   vigorous thunderstorms and a corresponding uptick in the severe risk
   will probably materialize.

   ..Smith.. 07/07/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   39548496 41098677 41618656 41418426 40798261 40058229
               39188279 38988353 39548496 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2017
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