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Mesoscale Discussion 1256
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1256
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1207 PM CDT Fri Jul 07 2017

   Areas affected...southern OH and a large portion of WV

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 071707Z - 071800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by
   130-200 PM EDT as a squall line over west-central OH moves to the
   southeast with a corresponding risk for isolated wind damage.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic during the past hour has shown a
   reorientation of a convective cluster into west-southwest to
   east-northeast squall line.  The Marion, OH ASOS measured a 43-kt
   gust at 1633Z.  Surface conditions over southwest OH have warmed
   into the middle 80s degrees F with cooler temperatures in the upper
   70s over southeastern OH to the north of an outflow boundary. 
   Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field across
   southwestern into south-central OH.  To the northeast of the
   early-day outflow, an absence of cumulus has been noted.  This
   likely delineates a southwest-northeast zone in which the boundary
   layer will appreciably destabilize and foster a greater threat for
   wind damage compared to perhaps more of a localized risk to the
   northeast.  

   Expecting a gradual intensification of thunderstorms this afternoon.
   Isolated swaths of 50-60 mph winds will be capable of wind damage. 
   An eddy or two embedded within the line may yield a brief/weak
   tornado or swath of wind damage.

   ..Smith/Grams.. 07/07/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   37708193 39148348 39288258 40678164 38927957 38028074
               37708193 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2017
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