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Mesoscale Discussion 1256
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1256
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0608 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN KY...WV...WRN VA...ERN TN...WRN NC
   AND UPSTATE SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 371...373...

   VALID 302308Z - 010015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   371...373...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
   EASTERN KY WHERE STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG STORMS ALONG A SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING LINE FROM
   NRN/ERN KY INTO FAR WRN WV WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ACROSS
   EASTERN KY WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER THAN FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE
   MOUNTAINS OF WV/WRN VA. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF
   THE LINE...WHICH INDICATES THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE FROM NEAR THE
   LOUISVILLE VICINITY EASTWARD TO THE KY/WV STATE LINE...WHILE THE
   EASTERN PORTION OF THE LINE OVER WV HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. THESE
   STRONGER CELLS OVER KY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THEY TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
   OF HOURS.

   FARTHER SOUTH IN WRN TN AND THE WRN NC/SC MOUNTAINS...THE THREAT
   WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MARGINAL AND CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTING BOUNDARY LAYER
   STABILIZATION.

   A NEW WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BEYOND THE 01Z EXPIRATION
   TIME FOR WW 373...BUT SOME LOCAL EXTENSIONS MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS
   OF KY DEPENDING ON STORM TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   FURTHERMORE...THE THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS MOST OF WW 371 OVER OHIO
   AND NRN WV. DEPENDING ON STORM TRENDS...A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME
   MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE LMK CWA.

   ..LEITMAN.. 06/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...
   OHX...

   LAT...LON   39098068 38048060 35618105 34108219 34348342 34918533
               35798566 37308563 37768569 38408579 38678564 38498497
               38348325 38448226 39098068 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2015
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