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Mesoscale Discussion 1257
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 PM CDT WED JUL 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN PA...CENTRAL/ERN NY...MUCH OF NEW
   ENGLAND...NJ AND NRN DE/ERN MD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384...386...

   VALID 022027Z - 022200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   384...386...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY THE ERN PORTIONS OF
   WW 384 INTO WW 386 THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...A ZONE OF DEEP LAYER
   CONVERGENCE ALSO EXISTS FROM CENTRAL NY SSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL PARTS
   OF PA WHERE RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED...AND THE AIR MASS
   REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE YET THIS AFTERNOON FROM LYCOMING COUNTY PA TO THE SOUTHEAST
   OF UCA.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED STORMS ACROSS THE
   NORTHEAST U.S. HAVE CONGEALED INTO A BAND EXTENDING FROM SRN NH
   THROUGH WRN MA...NWRN CT...SERN NY TO NERN PA.  THE AIR MASS WITHIN
   AND EAST OF THIS ONGOING BAND OF STORMS REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE
   WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT SUPPORTING A CONTINUED THREAT
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

   THE ENVIRONMENT TO THE WEST OF THIS MAIN BAND OF STORMS INTO EAST
   CENTRAL NY HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AND SHOULD LIMIT THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS IN THIS PORTION OF WW 384. 
   HOWEVER...PARTS OF NRN AND ERN VT REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
   STRONGLY SHEARED SUGGESTING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT.  THE PRESENCE OF ONGOING STORMS AND OVERSHOOTING TOPS IN
   THESE PARTS OF VT PER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM THIS
   POTENTIAL AS WELL. 

   MEANWHILE...A CORRIDOR OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
   EXTENDED FROM THE ERN WV PANHANDLE THROUGH CENTRAL PA.  A FEW STORMS
   HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED TO SUPPORT AT LEAST AN
   ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...GENERALLY EAST OF A
   LINE FROM AOO TO UNV TO INVOF BGM TO EAST OF UCA.

   ..PETERS.. 07/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...
   CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39777782 41327705 41727660 42707545 44047394 44977376
               45017152 45307107 44097099 43367094 42597078 42067148
               41797141 41607225 41517257 41277257 41107301 40617345
               40497395 39617420 39097476 38807503 38437505 38537567
               38787634 39637611 39727637 39777782 

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Page last modified: July 02, 2014
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