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Mesoscale Discussion 1257
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0622 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL
   PLAIN...ADJACENT SE VIRGINIA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378...379...

   VALID 302322Z - 010045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   378...379...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STORMS LIKELY WILL REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY
   PROGRESS EAST OF THE WATCHES...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NORTH
   CAROLINA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA DURING THE 01-03Z TIME
   FRAME.  IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT YET CERTAIN...THAT A NEW WW MAY BE
   NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...A SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
   AHEAD OF THE ONGOING EASTWARD PROGRESSING SQUALL LINE IS CERTAINLY
   NOT OPTIMAL FOR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/SYSTEM-RELATIVE INFLOW.  BUT
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS VIGOROUS...AND APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING
   STRENGTH...AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD AROUND 35 KTS ON THE LEADING EDGE
   OF ITS CONGLOMERATE COLD POOL.  PEAK 3-SECOND WIND GUSTS IN SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS APPEAR TO BE RECENTLY ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KT...AFTER
   AN INITIAL BURST AT LEAST APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS NEAR COLUMBIA
   SC.  WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING VERY WARM AND POTENTIALLY
   UNSTABLE AHEAD OF ACTIVITY...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH
   CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA AND
   NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT ACTIVITY WILL
   REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE INTO AT LEAST IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
   THROUGH 01-03Z.

   ..KERR.. 06/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...

   LAT...LON   32877998 33677940 34377907 34967889 35717866 36527842
               37267742 36667672 36087629 35147658 34567699 33867793
               32877998 

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