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Mesoscale Discussion 1259
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1259
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 380...

   VALID 010055Z - 010230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 380 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH DISCRETE SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
   PROGRESSING SUPERCELL STORMS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST ANOTHER SEVERAL
   HOURS...

   DISCUSSION...A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS HAVE FORMED...ARE
   ONGOING...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING NEAR THE LEE SURFACE
   TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGGING ACROSS THE
   SASKATCHEWAN BORDER MAY BE ENHANCING ACTIVITY...BUT MODELS ARE
   SUGGESTIVE THAT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
   SUPPORT AN UPSCALE GROWING STORM CLUSTER.  HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR
   IS QUITE STRONG...WITH NEAR SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLIES VEERING TO
   NORTHWESTERLY /AT 40-50 KT/ AROUND 500 MB.  AND STORM PROPAGATION IS
   GENERALLY ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR OF CAPE THAT APPEARS ON THE ORDER
   OF 1500-2000 J/KG.  THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN
   INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...WITH
   DISCRETE STORMS PROBABLY DEVELOPING/SPREADING SOUTH AS FAR SOUTH AS
   THE BLACK HILLS AREA.

   ..KERR.. 07/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   48390537 47940426 47810324 47420303 46640242 45660229
               44680189 43870221 43850331 44360374 45610393 46430420
               47280504 48390537 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2015
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