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Mesoscale Discussion 1259
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1259
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0536 PM CDT WED JUL 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NERN LA...CNTRL/ERN MS...W-CNTRL AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387...

   VALID 022236Z - 022330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...RISK FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS AND
   OCCASIONAL HAIL SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...AND IS
   LIKELY TO EXTEND E OF WW 387. THE MARGINAL AND SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF
   THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A NEW WW INTO PARTS OF FAR ERN
   MS AND WRN AL.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOW OUTFLOW SURGING
   S/EWD FROM EARLIER TSTM COMPLEX...REINFORCING A WEAK EFFECTIVE COLD
   FRONT POSITIONED GENERALLY FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS /2000-3000 J/KG PER RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/
   PERSISTS...SUPPORTING GENERATION OF NEW AND RELATIVELY ISOLATED
   UPDRAFT PULSES. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IS LARGELY
   RESULTING IN UNORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS PROPAGATING EWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
   NERN MS...WHERE MIDLEVEL FLOW IS ALSO SLIGHTLY STRONGER. PRIMARY
   HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE INSTANCES OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR
   WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS HAIL OCCASIONALLY APPROACHING SVR LIMITS
   WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD SLOWLY WANE
   THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WITH A
   SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS ANTICIPATED.

   ..ROGERS.. 07/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32368735 31938888 30669189 30529317 31649322 32309187
               32369020 33228937 34288924 34408855 34098760 33488722
               32948733 32368735 

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Page last modified: July 02, 2014
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