|Mesoscale Discussion 1260|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1260
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0424 PM CDT Fri Jul 07 2017
Areas affected...Southeast CO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 072124Z - 072330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible
across southeast CO this afternoon/evening.
DISCUSSION...Recent KPUX radar imagery shows well-defined outflow
propagating from the storms over El Paso and Pueblo counties.
Airmass over the region is characterized by a well-mixed boundary
layer with temperatures in the mid 90s and dewpoints around 50.
Latest mesoanalysis suggest MLCAPE is around 1000 J/kg and little to
no convective inhibition. As a result, additional development is
possible along the outflow, leading to some potential for a
forward-propagating convective system. However, confidence is low in
the potential for upscale growth. Even if linear development is
realized, the lack of stronger flow aloft should preclude the
organization of a long-lived, severe MCS. Regardless of the overall
convective evolution, given the deeply mixed environment and high
cloud bases, some strong wind gusts are possible along the leading
edge of the outflow. Large uncertainty regarding the overall
convective evolution precludes higher watch probabilities but
convective trends will be monitored closely.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38200485 39170486 39630406 39380277 38630234 37760242
37130287 37270429 38200485
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