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Mesoscale Discussion 1260
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1260
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0424 PM CDT Fri Jul 07 2017

   Areas affected...Southeast CO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 072124Z - 072330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible
   across southeast CO this afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...Recent KPUX radar imagery shows well-defined outflow
   propagating from the storms over El Paso and Pueblo counties.
   Airmass over the region is characterized by a well-mixed boundary
   layer with temperatures in the mid 90s and dewpoints around 50.
   Latest mesoanalysis suggest MLCAPE is around 1000 J/kg and little to
   no convective inhibition. As a result, additional development is
   possible along the outflow, leading to some potential for a
   forward-propagating convective system. However, confidence is low in
   the potential for upscale growth. Even if linear development is
   realized, the lack of stronger flow aloft should preclude the
   organization of a long-lived, severe MCS. Regardless of the overall
   convective evolution, given the deeply mixed environment and high
   cloud bases, some strong wind gusts are possible along the leading
   edge of the outflow. Large uncertainty regarding the overall
   convective evolution precludes higher watch probabilities but
   convective trends will be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/07/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38200485 39170486 39630406 39380277 38630234 37760242
               37130287 37270429 38200485 

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