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Mesoscale Discussion 1260
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1260
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1007 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN AND CNTRL ARIZONA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381...

   VALID 010307Z - 010430Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY STILL INCREASE WITH
   VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
   ARIZONA...PERHAPS ALSO SPREADING TOWARD THE PHOENIX METRO AREA
   TOWARD 05-06Z.

   DISCUSSION...EXPANDING/COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE EVIDENT WITH
   INCREASING AND INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND THE TUCSON
   AREA.  THIS MAY CORRESPOND TO SUPPORT FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MIGRATING MID/UPPER WAVE ALONG THE
   INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA.  A FURTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THROUGH THE 04-06 TIME
   FRAME...AIDED BY INFLOW OF NEAR SURFACE AIR STILL CHARACTERIZED BY
   MODERATELY LARGE CAPE.  WITH TIME...IT ALSO SEEMS PROBABLE THAT
   THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A MORE SUBSTANTIVE AND
   STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL.  AIDED BY 20-40 EASTERLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW THIS COLD POOL SHOULD SPREAD WESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER
   DESERTS...NEAR THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA BORDER...WHERE THE VERY WARM TO
   HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO
   MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GUST FRONT. 
   STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...WHICH COULD ALSO
   SPREAD TOWARD THE PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA.

   ..KERR.. 07/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31671191 31941286 32021335 32161397 33071321 33651227
               32611071 32051082 31701105 31671191 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2015
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