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Mesoscale Discussion 1261
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1261
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1057 AM CDT THU JUL 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NY...NJ...PA...MD...WV...VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 031557Z - 031700Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS WITH HIGH WINDS AND SOME
   HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NRN VA ACROSS ERN PA AND INTO
   SERN NY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED
   FOR THESE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...A MODEST MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 30-50KT SWLY
   WINDS ALOFT WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY AS A WEAK SURFACE
   COLD FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE APPALACHIAN CREST THIS AFTERNOON.
   LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL ACT ON A VERY MOIST
   AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST...MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WEAK
   CAPPING...AND PRE-CONVECTIVE SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY OFFSET
   LAPSE RATE LIMITATIONS TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GREATER EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT
   DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.
   THUS EXPECT A MIXED MODE OF CONVECTIVE CHARACTER WITH MORE
   PERSISTENT SUPERCELL/ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL POSSIBLE AT THE
   INTERFACE OF STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...FROM PA TO NY/NJ...AND
   MORE MUTLICELL/CLUSTERED STORMS TO THE SOUTH. EVENTUALLY...STORM
   MERGERS AND LINEAR FORCING NEAR THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN AN
   INCREASING CHANCE FOR LINE SEGMENTS AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL AROUND THE HOURS OF MAXIMUM HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

   ..CARBIN/CORFIDI.. 07/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...
   RLX...

   LAT...LON   42297485 41867445 41127469 39537601 39087673 38797714
               37967871 37877954 38317976 39017980 39587948 40507872
               41857700 42337575 42297485 

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Page last modified: July 03, 2014
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