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Mesoscale Discussion 1261
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1261
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0450 PM CDT Fri Jul 07 2017

   Areas affected...Southern KS...Northern OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 072150Z - 072345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across southern
   KS and northern OK for the next several hours. Anticipated isolated
   nature of the severe threat is expected to preclude the need for a

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery has shown increased cu
   along the cold front draped along the OK/KS border. Convective
   initiation has been realized near eastern OK/KS border vicinity and
   a few deeper cu appear to be developing over the central OK
   Panhandle and southwest KS. Temperatures have climbed into the upper
   90s/low 100s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s, which is
   supporting MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and little to no convective
   inhibition. The region is displaced south of the stronger mid-level
   flow aloft, which is limited vertical shear and the potential for
   better storm organization. Even with only limited storm
   organization, moderate instability will still support strong
   updrafts. These strong updrafts within the moist but deeply mixed
   airmass will result in the potential for some water-loaded
   downbursts. Resulting limited severe coverage and lack of better
   storm organization is expected to preclude the need for a watch.

   ..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/07/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38390032 37689800 37439472 36309488 36670118 38400168

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