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Mesoscale Discussion 1261
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1261
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 380...

   VALID 010419Z - 010545Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 380 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH LINGERING STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH 06-07Z.  A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...DIGGING ACROSS
   THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.  AS INHIBITION INCREASES FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
   PARCELS NEAR THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH SURFACE
   COOLING...REMAINING STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING FOR THE PAST HOUR OR
   SO.  THIS PROBABLY HAS BEEN SLOWED SOMEWHAT BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE
   STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...AND PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION... PARTICULARLY ALONG A CORRIDOR WEST OF PIERRE SD INTO
   AREAS WEST OF MOBRIDGE.  THIS MAY PROVIDE CONTINUING SUPPORT FOR
   STORMS SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
   06-07Z...BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY TO
   INCREASE SUBSTANTIVELY.

   ..KERR.. 07/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   46100163 45850081 45140027 44520035 44020112 43780141
               43700198 44390210 44920223 45550253 46100163 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2015
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