Mesoscale Discussion 1262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 PM CDT Fri Jul 07 2017
Areas affected...Southern Indiana...northern Kentucky...southern
Ohio and adjacent portions of West Virginia
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 402...404...
Valid 072234Z - 080000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 402, 404
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will overspread southern Indiana and north
central/ northeastern Kentucky through 8-10 PM EDT, with potentially
damaging wind gusts becoming the primary severe weather threat. The
need for additional watches to the south/southeast of current
watches is not currently anticipated, but trends will continue to be
DISCUSSION...A corridor of stronger pre-frontal surface heating to
near 90F, beneath a plume of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates
associated with elevated mixed layer air emanating from the central
Plains, has contributed to moderate mixed layer CAPE across the
region. And 30 kt west northwesterly deep layer mean flow is
contributing to at least some continuing southward propagation of
upstream vigorous convective development into this environment.
Aided by favorably unstable inflow, thunderstorms seem likely to
maintain intensity into at least the 00-02Z time frame, accompanied
by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts, near/west through
north of Louisville eastward along/north of the Interstate 64
corridor of north central and northeastern Kentucky.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 39228658 38738441 39148263 38608086 38168126 37728244
38118572 38878740 39228658