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Mesoscale Discussion 1262
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1262
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT THU JUL 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PA...NJ...NY...CT...MA...VT...NH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 031730Z - 032000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE PROSPECTS FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON FROM THE DELAWARE AND HUDSON VALLEYS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
   THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE
   LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD FROM
   NORTHEAST NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. IN
   ADDITION TO LIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT AND NEAR WEAK FRONTAL
   WAVES... DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL AID
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AMIDST A WEAKLY
   CAPPED AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE
   ORDER OF 30-50KT WILL FAVOR A FEW SUSTAINED ROTATING
   UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HAIL
   AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED/BRIEF
   TORNADO. WITH TIME...STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO LINE SEGMENTS
   NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT WITH POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
   ACCOMPANYING AN EASTWARD-MOVING SQUALL LINE FROM NRN NJ/ERN NY INTO
   WRN NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING.

   ..CARBIN/CORFIDI.. 07/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   42887496 42987524 43407495 43607446 43807411 44697286
               44657203 44357163 43127186 42437219 41627295 40637416
               39937509 39887571 40237600 40767599 41207541 41217498
               41437456 41987452 42357455 42637462 42887496 

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Page last modified: July 03, 2014
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