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Mesoscale Discussion 1262
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1262
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0534 PM CDT Fri Jul 07 2017

   Areas affected...Southern Indiana...northern Kentucky...southern
   Ohio and adjacent portions of West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 402...404...

   Valid 072234Z - 080000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 402, 404

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will overspread southern Indiana and north
   central/ northeastern Kentucky through 8-10 PM EDT, with potentially
   damaging wind gusts becoming the primary severe weather threat.  The
   need for additional watches to the south/southeast of current
   watches is not currently anticipated, but trends will continue to be

   DISCUSSION...A corridor of stronger pre-frontal surface heating to
   near 90F, beneath a plume of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates
   associated with elevated mixed layer air emanating from the central
   Plains, has contributed to moderate mixed layer CAPE across the
   region.  And 30 kt west northwesterly deep layer mean flow is
   contributing to at least some continuing southward propagation of
   upstream vigorous convective development into this environment. 
   Aided by favorably unstable inflow, thunderstorms seem likely to
   maintain intensity into at least the 00-02Z time frame, accompanied
   by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts, near/west through
   north of Louisville eastward along/north of the Interstate 64
   corridor of north central and northeastern Kentucky.

   ..Kerr.. 07/07/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39228658 38738441 39148263 38608086 38168126 37728244
               38118572 38878740 39228658 

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