Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1263
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1263 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1263
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0354 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...LONG ISLAND / FAR SRN NY / CT / RI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 010854Z - 011000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LINE OF STORMS OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL MOVE NEWD
   ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CT AND POTENTIALLY YIELD AN ISOLATED
   WIND-DAMAGE RISK AS THE SQUALL LINE ORGANIZES FURTHER.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC OVER THE PAST HOUR HAS SHOWN A
   CONSOLIDATION OF LINE SEGMENTS INTO A LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE LINE
   OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND AREAS S OF NYC.  WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL
   APPALACHIANS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS MORNING.  THE
   INCREASING LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING
   MID-TROPOSPHERIC SWLY FLOW --SAMPLED BY THE OKX VAD FROM 35 TO 55
   KT-- OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE LINE LONGEVITY.
   SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E CHARACTERIZED BY
   TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS OVER LONG ISLAND
   INTO MUCH OF CT.  TO THE N OVER MA...WARMER/MORE MOIST
   BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR WILL PROBABLY NOT PENETRATE THE AREA AS THE
   CONVECTIVE LINE WILL OUTRUN THE NWD ADVANCEMENT OF A SLOW-MOVING
   WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND.  RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ABOVE
   THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER MAY ACT TO ENHANCE OR REINFORCE WIND GUST
   POTENTIAL.  AS A RESULT...STRONG TO SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
   /GUSTS 40-60 MPH/ MAY YIELD ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ACROSS SRN NEW
   ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 07/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   41267389 41797354 42077292 42037210 41707162 41377143
               40977188 40507359 41267389 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 01, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities