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Mesoscale Discussion 1263
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1263
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 PM CDT THU JUL 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NY / NERN INTO S-CNTRL PA / CNTRL MD / ERN WV
   / NRN AND CNTRL VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389...391...

   VALID 031941Z - 032045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   389...391...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A MIX OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE MULTICELLS AND TRANSIENT
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS
   THE SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HR HAS SHOWN A
   SPLITTING PAIR OF SUPERCELLS OVER SERN PA AND OTHER TRANSIENT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER NRN VA AND INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF NY.  THE
   AMALGAMATION OF COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH LINE SEGMENTS OVER
   W-CNTRL VA AND CNTRL PA WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE WRN DELIMITER FOR
   APPRECIABLE STRONG/ISOLD SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REMAINDER
   OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A SEVERE WIND GUST /57 KT/ WAS
   MEASURED AT KIPT AROUND 1930Z ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF THE CNTRL
   PA LINE SEGMENT.  

   THE AIRMASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE SEGMENTS AND INTO THE WARM
   SECTOR FROM VA NWD INTO NY...IS CHARACTERIZED AS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   /1000-2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/.  THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS LARGELY
   CONFINED TO FAR NRN VA NWD INTO NY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   INCREASING WITH NWD EXTENT /35 KT IN NRN VA TO 50 KT IN CNTRL NY/
   WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A CONTINUED MIX OF BOTH STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
   MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS.  WEAKER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER CNTRL VA
   SWD TOWARDS THE NC BORDER WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE
   TO PERHAPS A FEW POCKETS OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.

   ..SMITH.. 07/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...
   RNK...

   LAT...LON   37237932 39487832 41177736 43217608 43607451 43267409
               41947433 41537460 40137621 38617728 37607827 37177882
               37237932 

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Page last modified: July 03, 2014
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