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Mesoscale Discussion 1264
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1264
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0203 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IL AND CENTRAL INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 131903Z - 132030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW CLUSTERS AND/OR SMALL LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
   CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY
   THREAT WOULD BE A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A SMALL BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
   ACROSS FAR EAST-CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN MCV
   ENCOUNTERING RICH MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
   BOUNDARIES MAY FURTHER YIELD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   INDIANA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   SFC OBSERVATIONS AND MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE
   VALUES AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG HAVE MATERIALIZED...AIDED BY MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES UPWARDS OF 7 C/KM. WITHIN THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT...STORM MODES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORM OF CLUSTERS
   AND SMALL LINEAR SEGMENTS...DUE TO A LACK OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
   AND RELATED DEEP SHEAR. THESE MODES...IN COMBINATION WITH A
   WELL-HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGEST A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD
   BE THE MAIN THREAT. IF SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A GROWING
   SEVERE POTENTIAL...A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED.

   ..PICCA/THOMPSON.. 07/13/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...ILX...

   LAT...LON   39688824 40268808 40358652 41178547 40898492 39508484
               39228559 38928714 38988812 39488825 39168817 39688824 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2016
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