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Mesoscale Discussion 1264
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1264
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 PM CDT THU JUL 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NC

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 390...

   VALID 032009Z - 032215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 390 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...EYE OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL SKIRT CAPE FEAR NC SOON.
   ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR WATERSPOUT CHANCES WILL LIKELY PEAK ACROSS
   THE CAPE FEAR AREA NORTH TO WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH OVER THE NEXT 1-2
   HOURS AND THEN INCREASE NORTH TO CAPE LOOKOUT WITHIN 2-3 HOURS AND
   BEYOND.

   DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR IS WELL DEPICTED FROM A
   NUMBER OF RADAR SITES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS
   AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A PORTION OF
   THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OF ARTHUR WILL SOON MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP
   OF CAPE FEAR AND KLTX VWP DATA WAS OBSERVING A RAPID INCREASE IN LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR WITH 50KT OF EASTERLY FLOW WITHIN 1KM OF THE SURFACE.
   MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS CONTINUE TO ORBIT THE CENTER OF
   ARTHUR WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CORES CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE
   EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE CIRCULATION. EXPECT ISOLATED
   TORNADO/WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL TO PEAK EAST OF ILM IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
   SO WHILE THIS POTENTIAL LIKELY INCREASES NORTHEASTWARD TO MHX AS
   STRONGER CONVECTION AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST OF THE DISCRETE STRONGER CORES WITHIN
   THE FEEDER BANDS HAVE EXHIBITED ONLY WEAK ROTATION SO FAR.
   HOWEVER...ANY PERSISTENT DISCRETE ELEMENTS TRACKING NWWD ACROSS THE
   COASTLINE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF WATERSPOUTS
   AND/OR TORNADOES.

   ..CARBIN/CORFIDI.. 07/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   36067656 36247543 35787517 35067526 34887552 34387632
               34317657 34287696 34207737 33907779 33897816 33977862
               34727817 35167759 35537719 35807689 36067656 

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Page last modified: July 03, 2014
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