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Mesoscale Discussion 1265
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1265
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1217 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NY...NEW ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 011717Z - 011945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...OFFERING A RISK FOR
   LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
   WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...AREAS OF MODEST INSOLATION -- IN THE WAKE OF MORE
   WIDESPREAD/DENSE STRATUS CLOUDS -- ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
   PREVALENT OVER E-CNTRL/SERN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE LEADING
   EDGE OF STRONGER INSOLATION LIES FROM NEAR ALBANY TO AROUND
   BOSTON...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING NEWD WITH TIME. AS A
   RESULT...MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PERVASIVE
   ACROSS THE AREA AS SFC DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
   60S...THOUGH GENERALLY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PREVENT
   MORE SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION OF BUOYANCY DESPITE DIABATIC SFC
   HEATING. THIS IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE RELATIVELY FLAT APPEARANCE
   OF THE ENSUING BUILDING CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION PER VIS IMAGERY.

   REGARDLESS...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
   ACROSS THE REGION AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A WELL-DEFINED
   PV MAX IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR LOOPS -- PRESENTLY OVER THE HUDSON
   VALLEY -- LIFTS NEWD. HOWEVER...AS RELATED FORCING FOR ASCENT
   BECOMES INCREASINGLY DISPLACED N OF THE WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE PV-MAX-RELATED OCCLUDED CYCLONE...THE OVERLAP OF STRONGER ASCENT
   AND THE DESTABILIZING PBL WILL NARROW THROUGH PEAK HEATING. THIS
   SHOULD MITIGATE OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. REGARDLESS...THE
   PRESENCE OF 20-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAY SUPPORT MULTICELL
   STRUCTURES AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF WEAK/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS
   OFFERING THE RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS...WITH BACKGROUND COOL
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGESTING ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY
   OCCUR.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   44137345 44427140 43497052 42157096 41447164 41247340
               41687424 42847459 44137345 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2015
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