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Mesoscale Discussion 1265
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1265
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1009 AM CDT Sat Jul 08 2017

   Areas affected...CT...RI...MA...southern NH...far southern ME

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 081509Z - 081745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few organized storms are possible today across southern
   parts of New England.  Isolated gusts of 40-60 mph are possible. 
   Despite the potential for localized wind damage, the need for a
   severe thunderstorm watch is uncertain/reserved due to both the
   relatively confined coverage and expected intensity of the stronger
   storms.

   DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving
   across the Lower Great Lakes this morning and mostly clear skies
   from MA into southern NH/ME will promote heating today.  Surface
   conditions over the region are in the upper 70s degrees F
   temperatures and middle-upper 60s dewpoints.  Additional heating
   will result in marginal buoyancy across the region with 250-750 J/kg
   MLCAPE.  

   A couple of bands of convection as of 1505Z are located over
   northern NH and over east-central NY extending into southern VT.  A
   gradual strengthening in storm intensity is plausible as storms move
   into MA/southern NH.  The flow in the mid levels has strengthened
   across east-central NY (KENX VAD) with 45 kt sampled around 6-km
   ARL.  While instability will likely remain relatively weak, the
   moderately strong flow will promote some storm organization mainly
   in the form of organized multicell structures.  Isolated gusts of
   40-60 mph are possible with a few of the stronger storms and
   localized pockets of wind damage expected.

   ..Smith/Weiss.. 07/08/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   42297361 44217106 43996982 42027099 41467222 41617350
               42297361 

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Page last modified: July 08, 2017
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