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Mesoscale Discussion 1266
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1266
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0410 PM CDT THU JUL 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SERN AZ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 032110Z - 032245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
   AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  UNCERTAINTY
   REMAINS REGARDING THE COVERAGE/POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOLS TO CONGEAL
   THAT COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A SWATH OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS EARLY THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE WHITE
   MTNS IN ERN AZ WITH A SEPARATE AREA OF ISOLD STORM ACTIVITY OVER
   SERN AZ.  TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO AOA 100 DEG F IN THE LOWER DESERTS
   NEAR THE GREATER PHOENIX METRO.  THE 20Z GPS PW OBSERVATIONS NEAR
   PHX AND TUS SHOWED RELATIVELY HIGH PW VALUES...1.5 AND 1.3 INCH
   RESPECTIVELY.  BOTH MODIFIED 12Z PHOENIX AREA AND TUS RAOBS...AS
   WELL AS RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOW DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
   PROFILES WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES.  ALTHOUGH TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS
   GENERALLY WEAK...MODEST ELY/S /15-20 KT/ IN THE 2-5 KM ARL LAYER AT
   KEMX AND WLY HIGH LEVEL FLOW MAY SERVE TO PROMOTE PROPAGATION OF
   STORMS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS FROM ERN AND SERN AZ.  IF LARGE ENOUGH
   STORM CLUSTERS CAN GENERATE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CONGEALING
   OUTFLOW...SOME POSSIBILITY FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF ISOLD STRONG TO
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD MATERIALIZE.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.

   ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 07/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31621113 32881189 33431209 34221165 34401100 33870999
               33350914 32440954 32020980 31621113 

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Page last modified: July 03, 2014
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