|Mesoscale Discussion 1266|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1266
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2017
Areas affected...Eastern TN...western NC...northern GA...and far
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 081823Z - 082030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Occasionally strong/damaging wind gusts possible this
afternoon across eastern TN, western NC, far northwest SC, and
northern GA as thunderstorm coverage increases.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has increased across the region
as a subtle shortwave trough moving through the broad troughing
across the central and eastern CONUS interacts with a destabilizing
airmass. Surface conditions are characterized by temperatures in the
mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s. These moist
conditions are supporting MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg, despite generally
poor lapse rates. Ongoing thunderstorms are expected to persist for
at least the next few hours will some increasing coverage likely.
Shear is weak (i.e. less than 30 kt from 0-6 km on the latest MRX
VAD), but some modest organization is still possible along the
outflow as cold pools amalgamate. Some gusty winds are possible
along the leading edge of the outflow and/or as a result of
occasional updraft intensification due to storm interactions.
Sporadic nature of the strong gusts should preclude the need for a
watch but convective trends will be monitored closely.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 35478488 36448379 36518290 36178234 35458225 34798264
34198405 34408481 35478488
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