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Mesoscale Discussion 1266
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1266
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0123 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern TN...western NC...northern GA...and far
   northwest SC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 081823Z - 082030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Occasionally strong/damaging wind gusts possible this
   afternoon across eastern TN, western NC, far northwest SC, and
   northern GA as thunderstorm coverage increases.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has increased across the region
   as a subtle shortwave trough moving through the broad troughing
   across the central and eastern CONUS interacts with a destabilizing
   airmass. Surface conditions are characterized by temperatures in the
   mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s. These moist
   conditions are supporting MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg, despite generally
   poor lapse rates. Ongoing thunderstorms are expected to persist for
   at least the next few hours will some increasing coverage likely.
   Shear is weak (i.e. less than 30 kt from 0-6 km on the latest MRX
   VAD), but some modest organization is still possible along the
   outflow as cold pools amalgamate. Some gusty winds are possible
   along the leading edge of the outflow and/or as a result of
   occasional updraft intensification due to storm interactions.
   Sporadic nature of the strong gusts should preclude the need for a
   watch but convective trends will be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Weiss.. 07/08/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35478488 36448379 36518290 36178234 35458225 34798264
               34198405 34408481 35478488 

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