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Mesoscale Discussion 1267
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1267
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0547 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 132247Z - 132345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A RISK FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED AND A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SHIAWASSEE AND LIVINGSTON
   COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SIGNS OF
   INTENSIFICATION. THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
   DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING ALONG A SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE AND IN
   PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODESTLY
   STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT IS
   CHARACTERIZED BY 30 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE
   SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...SUGGESTING THAT SOME ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORMS IS POSSIBLE. DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING.

   THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED AND A WATCH IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   ..BUNTING/EDWARDS.. 07/13/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42638265 42248310 41828345 41778375 41798404 42038409
               42428405 42768415 43358482 43518473 43748434 43908380
               43968329 44078301 43928268 43738248 43598238 43198226
               42838247 42638265 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2016
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