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Mesoscale Discussion 1267
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1267
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0638 PM CDT THU JUL 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 032338Z - 040045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF
   WRN/CNTRL MT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
   INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT COVERAGE OF THESE
   THREATS MAY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE
   VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG/ AND INCREASING OROGRAPHIC AND LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF WRN ID IS
   FOSTERING AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS.
   INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS LARGELY REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD TO LOWER ELEVATIONS/HIGH PLAINS
   THROUGH THE EVENING HRS AMIDST THE PRESENCE OF 20-30 KT OF WLY FLOW.
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE WEAK /5-15 KT/...BUT STEEP 0-4 KM AGL LAPSE
   RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURST
   WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF SMALL LINE SEGMENTS CAN CONGEAL. THE POTENTIAL
   FOR LARGER SWATHS OF STRONG-SVR WINDS WILL BE MONITORED...BUT
   CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO
   WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

   LAT...LON   46300702 45740952 45141148 44981287 45691361 46551329
               46641331 47111204 48060985 48480859 47990717 47360648
               46670662 46300702 

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Page last modified: July 04, 2014
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