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Mesoscale Discussion 1267
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1267
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0304 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...NRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382...

   VALID 012004Z - 012200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF MIDDLE
   AND ERN TN SEWD INTO NRN AL AND NRN GA. THE THREAT COULD AFFECT
   AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WW 382 LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A LOCAL
   EXTENSION IN AREA COULD BECOME NECESSARY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
   CURRENT WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE OZARKS INTO NRN MS...NRN AL AND WRN
   GA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. MODERATE
   INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE LAPSE RATES HAVE
   STEEPENED THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
   ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN NRN AL AND ERN TN. THIS CONVECTION
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GRADIENT SEWD ACROSS THE SERN PART OF
   WW 382 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE WSR-88D VWP IN THE ATLANTA
   METRO SHOWS ABOUT 25 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING ENOUGH SHEAR
   EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATCH TO HELP KEEP STORMS ORGANIZED.
   AS SFC HEATING CONTINUES AND INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A BOWING LINE SEGMENT
   IN FAR NRN AL AND WITH CELLS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THAT ARE
   MOVING INTO NW GA.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   32738363 32838418 33708597 33838681 34148720 34478742
               35008711 35628594 36038497 35698407 35298330 34658287
               33728289 32998318 32738363 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2015
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