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Mesoscale Discussion 1268
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0305 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ARIZONA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 012005Z - 012230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH THE COVERAGE OF SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
   TOO MINIMAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE DEEPENING CUMULUS AND
   ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM TO THE SERN AZ
   MOUNTAINS...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IN SANTA
   CRUZ COUNTY. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT...UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHEN
   ASCENT PRECEDING A SALIENT ELY WAVE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE...MID-LEVEL UPWARD MOTION TODAY IS MORE NEUTRAL. AS
   SUCH...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO TERRAIN-DRIVEN
   CIRCULATIONS...WITH LESSER TSTM/SVR-TSTM COVERAGE TODAY THAN
   YESTERDAY. REGARDLESS...SOME INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS SUFFICIENT MONSOON-RELATED MOISTURE
   AND SFC HEATING SUPPORT MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE
   STEEP-LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT.

   EMX VWP IS SAMPLING ENHANCED /20-30 KT/ MID-LEVEL ELYS/SELYS WITHIN
   A TIGHTENED HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A GREAT-BASIN AREA ANTICYCLONE
   AND A CYCLONE WELL SW OF THE CA COAST. DEEP SHEAR OFFERED BY THIS
   FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   STRUCTURES...WITH DEEP PBL MIXING/LARGE DCAPE ENCOURAGING STRONG
   OUTFLOW WINDS POTENTIALLY BECOMING LOCALLY SVR. ALSO...A FEW
   INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY OF THE
   MORE DISCRETE...WEAKLY ROTATING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS -- PARTICULARLY
   WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM WHERE DEEP SHEAR IS
   STRONGEST. HOWEVER...AREA-WIDE...SVR COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED
   FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

   LAT...LON   31551176 32581204 33361268 34361410 35461422 35701292
               35481109 34760965 33240920 31570935 31321018 31551176 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2015
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