|Mesoscale Discussion 1268|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1268
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Sun Jul 09 2017
Areas affected...southwest Montana through northwest Wyoming
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 091944Z - 092215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated downburst winds and marginally severe hail are
possible through early evening. Given the expected marginal nature
and sparse coverage of any severe events, a WW is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...The combination of orographic forcing and mid-level
ascent accompanying shortwave trough cresting upper ridge is
fostering the development of thunderstorms over the higher terrain
of southwest MT into northwest WY. Temperatures rising into the
upper 90s and surface dewpoints in the 40s F are promoting weak
instability with steep lapse rates and deep inverted-v boundary
layers. The stronger storms will pose some risk for a few instances
of downburst winds as they develop east through early evening.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 46321218 45860872 44780847 44020992 44761192 45601295
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