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Mesoscale Discussion 1268
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0659 PM CDT THU JUL 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MD...DE...FAR ERN PA...NJ...SERN-ERN
   NY...CT...MA...VT...NH...WRN ME

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391...

   VALID 032359Z - 040200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS THE VALID
   PORTION OF WW 391...WITH COLD POOLS ENHANCING THE DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT.  COUNTIES IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONGER BANDS OF STORMS SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIMINISHING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS THE AIR MASS
   IS CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED...AND THUS COULD BE CANCELLED FROM THIS
   WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY /REFLECTIVITIES AND
   VELOCITY/ INDICATED AT LEAST TWO COLD POOL ENHANCED LINES OF
   STORMS...1/ MOVING EWD FROM SRN VT INTO CENTRAL/SRN NH AT 40+
   KT...AND 2/ MOVING NEWD AT 40+ KT INTO CENTRAL/NRN NJ FROM ERN PA. 
   THIS LATTER LINE PRODUCED A 57 KT WIND GUST AT KPNE IN SERN PA AT
   2317Z.  ADDITIONAL STRONG-SEVERE BANDS OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM SWRN
   MA/NWRN CT INTO SERN NY AND NRN NJ. 

   OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
   REMAINING IN PLACE FROM NJ NEWD THROUGH CT...WRN/CENTRAL MA...NH TO
   WRN ME.  THE AFOREMENTIONED STORMS ARE MOVING INTO THIS CORRIDOR OF
   INSTABILITY WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT ORIENTED PARALLEL
   TO THE CONVECTION...SUPPORTING A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. 
   GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...HAIL REMAINS A
   THREAT...AND EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2 COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR UP TO 40 KT SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

   ..PETERS.. 07/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
   AKQ...CTP...

   LAT...LON   38357478 38567593 39357607 40087591 40567592 41257517
               41627454 42487385 43797338 44657319 45007243 45377080
               46567005 46556976 44656925 43816991 43017066 42607059
               42117133 41587185 41357242 38357478 

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Page last modified: July 04, 2014
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