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Mesoscale Discussion 1268
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1268
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0244 PM CDT Sun Jul 09 2017

   Areas affected...southwest Montana through northwest Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 091944Z - 092215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated downburst winds and marginally severe hail are
   possible through early evening. Given the expected marginal nature
   and sparse coverage of any severe events, a WW is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...The combination of orographic forcing and mid-level
   ascent accompanying shortwave trough cresting upper ridge is
   fostering the development of thunderstorms over the higher terrain
   of southwest MT into northwest WY. Temperatures rising into the
   upper 90s and surface dewpoints in the 40s F are promoting weak
   instability with steep lapse rates and deep inverted-v boundary
   layers. The stronger storms will pose some risk for a few instances
   of downburst winds as they develop east through early evening.

   ..Dial/Weiss.. 07/09/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   46321218 45860872 44780847 44020992 44761192 45601295

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