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Mesoscale Discussion 1269
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1269
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0330 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR NRN OK AND THE OK PANHANDLE...FAR
   SRN KS...FAR NERN TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 012030Z - 012300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A VERY ISOLATED SVR-TSTM RISK MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
   REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...VERY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEEPENING MAY EVOLVE DURING
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER ON
   THE SRN EDGE OF REMNANT MID CLOUDS WITH RELATED BAROCLINICITY
   ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...AND ALSO INVOF A REMNANT/DIFFUSE
   FRONT FROM SWRN KS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
   DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY NOTED NEAR THE FRONT IN PARTS OF THE TX/OK
   PANHANDLES. HOT TEMPERATURES AMIDST MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
   WARM SIDE OF THE REMNANT CLOUD SHIELD/FRONT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
   MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT COULD FOSTER A COUPLE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS.
   DCAPE OF 1000-1300 J/KG SUGGESTS STRONG MICROBURSTS WITH VERY
   ISOLATED SVR-OUTFLOW GUSTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE PAUCITY OF ASCENT
   THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BE A MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR FOR
   MORE SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF SVR CONVECTION...PRECLUDING WW
   ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36529701 36219902 36040061 36260120 36890049 37369890
               37179686 36899658 36579673 36529701 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2015
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