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Mesoscale Discussion 1269
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1269
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0713 PM CDT THU JUL 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389...

   VALID 040013Z - 040045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STABILIZING EFFECTS OF ONGOING AND EARLIER CONVECTION
   ACROSS SWRN INTO CENTRAL VA SUPPORTS A CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND
   IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  THE REMAINING COUNTIES WITHIN WW 389
   COULD BE REMOVED FROM THIS WATCH PRIOR TO THE 01Z EXPIRATION.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
   INDICATED AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND IN THE STRENGTH OF STORMS
   ACROSS SWRN VA.  THIS COMBINED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS SUGGESTS THE
   OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR NEW STRONG-SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE
   LOW...SUPPORTING THE LIKELIHOOD THAT WW 389 CAN BE CANCELLED PRIOR
   TO THE SCHEDULED 01Z EXPIRATION.

   ..PETERS.. 07/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37358028 38007998 38147930 37777883 37487884 37027940
               36978008 37358028 

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Page last modified: July 04, 2014
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