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Mesoscale Discussion 1269
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1269
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0302 PM CDT Sun Jul 09 2017

   Areas affected...southern Arizona

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 092002Z - 092230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will pose a risk for isolated downburst winds over
   southern AZ through early evening. Coverage of severe events is
   expected to remain too sparse for a WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Modest easterly deep-layer winds between 2-10 km within
   southern periphery of upper ridge will promote westward movement of
   storms developing over the higher terrain of southeast AZ.
   Temperatures climbing through 100 F and dewpoints in the 50s F are
   promoting moderate instability with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and steep
   lapse rates with inverted-v boundary layers. Isolated downburst
   winds will likely occur through early evening as this activity
   develops westward through the corridor of stronger instability.

   ..Dial/Weiss.. 07/09/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33131280 33271161 32761034 31891005 31391068 31541163
               32251330 33131280 

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