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Mesoscale Discussion 1270
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1270
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0823 PM CDT THU JUL 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC AND SERN VA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 390...

   VALID 040123Z - 040230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 390 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS
   EAST CENTRAL AND NERN NC INTO SERN VA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
   OVERNIGHT...AS HURRICANE ARTHUR TRACKS NNEWD PER LATEST NHC
   FORECAST/GUIDANCE.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSES/RADAR IMAGERY AND NHC DATA INDICATED
   THE 01Z POSITION OF HURRICANE ARTHUR NEAR 45 SM E OF ILM.  GIVEN A
   NNEWD MOVEMENT OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL
   CONTINUE TO SHIFT NWD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NERN NC INTO SERN VA
   THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  RECENT TORNADO WARNINGS
   HAVE INCLUDED AREAS JUST WNW OF WW 390 IN VICINITY AND NE OF KRWI
   WHERE STREAMLINE ANALYSES INDICATED A N-S ORIENTED WIND SHIFT THAT
   EXTENDED FROM NEAR KGSB TO KRWI TO KRIC.  A ZONE OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY EXTENDED EAST THROUGH NORTH OF ARTHUR WITH THE OUTERMOST
   BAND OF TSTMS MOVING NWD INTO THIS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THIS
   INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SFC-1 KM SHEAR OF 20-35 KT IN THE ERN/NRN
   PORTION OF ARTHUR WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL
   CIRCULATIONS/TORNADO THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

   ..PETERS/HART.. 07/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   33627764 33487829 33857859 34397825 35177809 35887805
               36667768 37037658 36727543 35797502 35377512 34807564
               34237639 33627764 

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Page last modified: July 04, 2014
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