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Mesoscale Discussion 1271
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1271
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0347 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO AND NRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 012047Z - 012315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS AND
   WRN MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. LARGE
   HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A COUPLE TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE
   STRONGER CELLS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1
   TO 2 HOURS ONCE CELLS BEGIN TO INITIATE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006 MB LOW OVER CNTRL KS
   WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS ERN
   KS AND CNTRL MO. AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM NEAR
   THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE KS-MO STATE LINE WHERE MLCAPE
   IS ESTIMATED FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT
   CONVECTION WILL INITIATE WHERE THE INSTABILITY AXIS MEETS THE FRONT
   WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING SSEWD ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN
   MO. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR INITIATION WOULD BE IN THE 2130 TO 2230
   TIMEFRAME WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN. THE WSR-88D VWP
   AT KANSAS CITY AND SPRINGFIELD SHOW WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 45 KT AND SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY
   SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. LOOPED
   HODOGRAPHS ALSO SUGGEST THAT A TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THE
   MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38269328 37829312 37019247 36459213 36099211 35649229
               35529276 35789347 36479483 37229593 38109642 38779644
               39279627 39609593 39629546 39349425 39069357 38269328 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2015
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