|Mesoscale Discussion 1272|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1272
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Sun Jul 09 2017
Areas affected...Portions of southern MN...northern IA...and western
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 406...
Valid 100445Z - 100545Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 406
SUMMARY...Primarily a strong to damaging wind threat continues with
thunderstorms moving from southern MN into northern IA. Isolated
instances of marginally severe hail and perhaps a tornado also
remain possible mainly across southern MN in the short term.
DISCUSSION...A 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet has developed
across southern MN and IA over the past several hours, and
convection has now grown upscale into several line segments late
this evening. The greatest short-term severe potential will likely
remain with the leading line segment moving from far south-central
MN into north-central IA as of 0445Z. This short bowing line is
forecast to continue southeastward along an instability gradient,
and should pose mainly a strong to locally damaging wind threat over
the next several hours as it moves into northeastern IA. An isolated
threat for marginally severe hail and perhaps a tornado remains for
mainly southern MN over the next hour or so, but the increasingly
linear mode suggests both of these threats should continue to
diminish. Other convection that has developed across western WI in
association with low-level warm air advection is likely elevated
above a near-surface stable layer, and will probably pose just an
isolated threat for marginally severe hail.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 42929536 44749576 44899241 44159061 43609042 42789096
42379206 42339363 42569488 42929536
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