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Mesoscale Discussion 1272
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1272
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1145 PM CDT Sun Jul 09 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southern MN...northern IA...and western

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 406...

   Valid 100445Z - 100545Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 406

   SUMMARY...Primarily a strong to damaging wind threat continues with
   thunderstorms moving from southern MN into northern IA. Isolated
   instances of marginally severe hail and perhaps a tornado also
   remain possible mainly across southern MN in the short term.

   DISCUSSION...A 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet has developed
   across southern MN and IA over the past several hours, and
   convection has now grown upscale into several line segments late
   this evening. The greatest short-term severe potential will likely
   remain with the leading line segment moving from far south-central
   MN into north-central IA as of 0445Z. This short bowing line is
   forecast to continue southeastward along an instability gradient,
   and should pose mainly a strong to locally damaging wind threat over
   the next several hours as it moves into northeastern IA. An isolated
   threat for marginally severe hail and perhaps a tornado remains for
   mainly southern MN over the next hour or so, but the increasingly
   linear mode suggests both of these threats should continue to
   diminish. Other convection that has developed across western WI in
   association with low-level warm air advection is likely elevated
   above a near-surface stable layer, and will probably pose just an
   isolated threat for marginally severe hail.

   ..Gleason.. 07/10/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42929536 44749576 44899241 44159061 43609042 42789096
               42379206 42339363 42569488 42929536 

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