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Mesoscale Discussion 1273
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1273
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern IA into northwest IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 100649Z - 100845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally strong winds and/or hail will be possible as
   ongoing and/or new storms develop and spread to the southeast from
   north-central and northeast IA into central and eastern IA to
   northwest IL during the overnight to early morning.

   DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery, IR satellite imagery and
   lightning data indicated a large MCS with embedded strong to severe
   storms extending from south-central MN into north-central and
   northeast IA to southern WI.  A leading band of storms in northeast
   IA is moving to the southeast 30-35 kt along a moderate instability
   gradient, with recent surface observations detecting sub-severe wind
   gusts.  The magnitude of surface-based inhibition per objective
   analyses and 05Z DVN special sounding suggests severe wind gusts
   should remain limited to areas downstream of WW 406 across eastern
   IA into northwest IL.

   Meanwhile, strengthening kinematics (50-60 kt northwesterly 500-mb
   winds atop a 45 kt west-southwesterly 850-mb jet observed at
   OMA/DMX) will sustain effective bulk shear for storm organization. 
   Strong low-level warm advection into the western periphery of the
   MCS will maintain the likelihood for new thunderstorm development
   overnight into the early morning across central and eastern IA into
   northwest IL.  This scenario is supported by the 00Z 4-km WRF-NSSL
   and 3-km NAM with the potential for a bowing line of storms to
   spread across the discussion area.  Further strengthening of the
   low-level jet across IA could support an increase in severe wind
   gusts reaching the surface, though the strength of the inhibition is
   currently limiting that potential.  Otherwise, steep midlevel lapse
   rates and strong effective bulk shear will support a continued
   threat for large hail, especially with the storms along the western
   periphery of the MCS.

   ..Peters/Guyer.. 07/10/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42159377 42619112 42308982 41418948 40539032 40569154
               40779289 41699372 42159377 

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