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Mesoscale Discussion 1274
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1274
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0243 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

   Areas affected...Northern into central IA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 406...

   Valid 100743Z - 100945Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 406

   SUMMARY...A continued threat for isolated large hail and locally
   strong wind gusts will spread to the south/southeast across central
   to south-central IA through 12Z. Recent trends in radar imagery
   showed a weakening trend with ongoing storms. This would suggests WW
   406 would not need to be extended in time or area.

   DISCUSSION...A strong west-southwesterly low-level jet (50 kt) has
   developed from eastern NE into central IA, resulting in strong warm
   advection.  This will maintain strong ascent through the overnight
   along the western periphery of the large MCS across this region,
   with additional storm development.  Strong effective bulk shear,
   steep midlevel lapse rates (exceeding 8 C/km in the 700-500 mb
   layer), and residual moderate instability suggest organized storms
   remain possible.  However, recent trends of MRMS MESH indicated the
   strongest storm in north-central IA (Franklin County) was weakening
   in intensity.  The strength of surface-based inhibition suggests
   storms will tend remain elevated into the early morning with
   isolated hail being the primary threat, though locally strong wind
   gusts cannot be ruled out.

   ..Peters/Guyer.. 07/10/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42849341 42789270 42309251 41769234 41529241 41329257
               41249287 41369337 42249396 42849341 

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