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Mesoscale Discussion 1274
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 PM CDT FRI JUL 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...WRN NEB...NWRN KS...SERN WY...SWRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 042043Z - 042215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
   EVENING WITH A FEW REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NRN
   AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE
   MIDDLE 60S F. STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER NERN CO/SERN WY/WRN
   NEB WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WITH HAIL ALREADY NOTED ACROSS NERN
   CO.

   STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
   THIS COULD WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. LOW-LEVEL SLY WINDS
   VEERING WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK
   MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATE/STRONG INSTABILITY
   ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
   SUPERCELLS THAT FORM PRIOR TO OUTFLOWS MERGING LATER THIS
   EVENING...AT WHICH TIME DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

   ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 07/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39870093 39210168 39330244 40130306 41350326 42280333
               44130365 44370303 44260142 43900124 42130098 40760094
               39870093 

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Page last modified: July 04, 2014
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