|Mesoscale Discussion 1274|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017
Areas affected...Northern into central IA
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 406...
Valid 100743Z - 100945Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 406
SUMMARY...A continued threat for isolated large hail and locally
strong wind gusts will spread to the south/southeast across central
to south-central IA through 12Z. Recent trends in radar imagery
showed a weakening trend with ongoing storms. This would suggests WW
406 would not need to be extended in time or area.
DISCUSSION...A strong west-southwesterly low-level jet (50 kt) has
developed from eastern NE into central IA, resulting in strong warm
advection. This will maintain strong ascent through the overnight
along the western periphery of the large MCS across this region,
with additional storm development. Strong effective bulk shear,
steep midlevel lapse rates (exceeding 8 C/km in the 700-500 mb
layer), and residual moderate instability suggest organized storms
remain possible. However, recent trends of MRMS MESH indicated the
strongest storm in north-central IA (Franklin County) was weakening
in intensity. The strength of surface-based inhibition suggests
storms will tend remain elevated into the early morning with
isolated hail being the primary threat, though locally strong wind
gusts cannot be ruled out.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 42849341 42789270 42309251 41769234 41529241 41329257
41249287 41369337 42249396 42849341
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