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Mesoscale Discussion 1274
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MO THROUGH EXTREME ERN KS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 383...

   VALID 020052Z - 020215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 383 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST OVER NWRN THROUGH WCNTRL MO THROUGH
   02Z...AND SEVERE THREAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE
   EVENING. SOME DEVELOPMENT INTO EXTREME ERN KS ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE
   THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AN E-W ORIENTED
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT PERSIST FROM JUST SE OF KANSAS CITY EWD
   THROUGH NCNTRL MO. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING
   WWD TO A WEAK SFC LOW IN NERN KS THEN SWWD THROUGH SCNTRL KS. WHAT
   APPEARS TO BE A WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS
   FROM NWRN ARK THROUGH SWRN MO INTO SERN KS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
   VERY UNSTABLE FROM ERN KS INTO WRN MO AND WAS SAMPLED BY SPRINGFIELD
   MO 00Z RAOB INDICATING STEEP LAPSE RATES...3400 J/KG MLCAPE...250
   M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND 40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS
   ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. STORMS REMAIN PRIMARILY
   DISCRETE. HOWEVER...UPSCALE GROWTH MAY EVENTUALLY OCCUR LATER THIS
   EVENING AS COLD POOLS MERGE AND THE SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS SUPPORTING
   A SWD MOVING...FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT MIGHT EVENTUALLY
   BACKBUILD INTO EXTREME ERN KS.

   ..DIAL.. 07/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39149319 38239261 37219265 37259465 38919506 39149319 

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Page last modified: July 02, 2015
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