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Mesoscale Discussion 1275
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1275
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0646 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

   Areas affected...Central IL to western IN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 101146Z - 101345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts will be possible this morning,
   though the overall potential for damaging gusts appears to be
   waning, as the remnants of a bowing line of storms advance across
   central IL through 13-14Z, reaching western IN around 14Z.  WW
   issuance is unlikely at this time downstream across central IL into
   western IN.

   DISCUSSION...Trends in the forward movement of a bowing line across
   central IL (La Salle to Fulton counties) have begun to show
   indications of deceleration.  A strong rear-inflow jet (50 kt
   between 2-5 km agl at WSR-88D DVN) was observed with this bowing
   line of storms and a 40-45 kt westerly low-level jet extended into
   central IL per ILX VAD.  Despite these favorable kinematics, an
   extensive area of cloudiness/embedded rain located immediately
   downstream of the bowing line into northeast and east-central IL to
   northwest IN will limit boundary layer heating/destabilization this
   morning.  Further indication of a waning severe weather threat in
   the short term is an overall decrease in lightning coverage with the
   ongoing storms moving into and through central IL.  

   Models and water vapor imagery depicted a progressive midlevel
   impulse with the ongoing MCS, now moving through northern and
   central IL.  Low-level westerlies may weaken a little this morning,
   though have magnitudes around 40 kt, with restrengthening this
   afternoon across the lower OH Valley. Forcing for ascent attendant
   to the midlevel impulse and warm-air advection along the low-level
   jet will support additional convective development/embedded
   thunderstorms spreading to the east. Locally strong wind gusts
   cannot be ruled out with any stronger storms, though the overall
   coverage of stronger storms is expected to remain low through the
   morning.

   ..Peters/Guyer.. 07/10/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40479063 40958984 41248846 41238775 40768697 40068691
               39558741 39508829 39848958 40039041 40129067 40479063 

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Page last modified: July 10, 2017
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