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Mesoscale Discussion 1275
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1275
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0154 AM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB / SERN SD / WRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 050654Z - 050830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A
   WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG A 40-50 KT SSWLY LLJ IS
   LIKELY BEING AUGMENTED BY DCVA ATTENDANT TO A WEAK MIDLEVEL
   PERTURBATION TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH SD TO FOSTER A RECENT INCREASE
   IN ELEVATED TSTMS ALONG THE MO RIVER NEAR YKN. THE 00Z LBF SOUNDING
   IS LIKELY A REASONABLE PROXY FOR THE INFLOW AIR MASS TO THESE STORMS
   WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SURMOUNTED BY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WITH MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. 

   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN ON THE MARGINS OF THAT WHICH
   SUPPORTS UPDRAFT ROTATION/LONGEVITY WITH MULTICELLS BEING THE
   PREDOMINANT STORM MODE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION AND COVERAGE
   OF THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT. NONETHELESS ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL
   EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ELEVATED STORMS AS
   THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID MO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.

   ..MEAD/DIAL.. 07/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42879832 43229808 43489692 43399605 43309545 43109485
               42339451 41519465 40969505 40779573 40929636 41479715
               41979794 42509829 42879832 

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Page last modified: July 05, 2014
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