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Mesoscale Discussion 1276
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1106 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL THROUGH SWRN MO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 383...

   VALID 020406Z - 020500Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 383 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z FROM SERN KS THROUGH
   SWRN MO. SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST BEYOND 05Z...AND IF
   NECESSARY THE WW COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
   OVER SWRN MO. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THE TORNADO WATCH COULD BE
   REPLACED BY A SMALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BY 0445Z THAT WOULD
   INCLUDE SWRN MO.

   DISCUSSION...TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN
   LINE BUT WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY IS
   MOVING SWD AT AROUND 20 KT AND REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
   WITH MODERATE /2000 J/KG/ MLCAPE AND 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND THE
   00Z RAOB FROM LITTLE ROCK INDICATED WEAKER CAPE AND STRONGER
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH SWD EXTENT INTO ARKANSAS. THIS SUGGESTS
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CONFINED TO SWRN AND
   SCNTRL MO. THE SPRINGFIELD VWP SHOWS LARGE  0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS...AND
   THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL PERSIST FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
   HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND TENDENCY FOR
   STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE...PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING
   TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

   ..DIAL.. 07/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38079479 37869370 37779230 37779144 37279151 36949300
               36979440 37389487 37859508 38079479 

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Page last modified: July 02, 2015
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