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Mesoscale Discussion 1276
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1213 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 051713Z - 051915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NERN MN INTO THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS AS CONVECTION SPREADS ESEWD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
   BORDER REGION.  DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT AND MARGINAL
   VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ESEWD ACROSS FAR NRN
   ST. LOUIS COUNTY MN AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NWRN ONTARIO IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY FROM EXTREME SERN MANITOBA INTO NWRN MN.  THE STORMS ARE
   LOCATED ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
   AXIS LOCATED OVER NWRN MN...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER VALUES OF
   INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/ WITH EWD EXTENT AS
   INDICATED BY LATEST HOURLY MESOANALYSIS.  VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH
   HEIGHT AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT WILL PROMOTE
   MAINTENANCE OF ORGANIZED PRIMARILY MULTICELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS.  THE LIMITED
   THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT AND SMALL GEOGRAPHIC THREAT AREA ARE EXPECTED
   TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

   ..WEISS/THOMPSON.. 07/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...

   LAT...LON   47429080 47699196 47929260 48439289 48599275 48409163
               48249066 48078968 47918915 47539009 47429080 

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Page last modified: July 05, 2014
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