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Mesoscale Discussion 1276
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1276
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0208 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

   Areas affected...Southeast OH...Southwest PA...and Northern WV

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101908Z - 102115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong and occasionally severe storms will
   affect parts of southeast OH, southwest PA, and northern WV this
   afternoon.  This area will be monitored for a possible watch if
   trends warrant.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCV (remnant from overnight convection) is
   moving eastward across western OH.  The air mass ahead of this
   feature is only slowly destabilizing due to extensive cloud cover
   and scattered precipitation.  However, partly cloudy skies in the
   southeast flank of the MCV over southeast OH are helping
   temperatures to warm through the 70s with near 70F dewpoints.  While
   low-level lapse rates are somewhat limited today, low-level wind
   fields are relatively strong as depicted by ILN VWP data.  Continued
   heating will likely lead to scattered thunderstorm development, with
   sufficient vertical shear for a few organized/bowing convective
   segments.  Sufficient CAPE may also promote a risk of hail in the
   strongest cells.  Convective trends will be monitored in this region
   for the possibility of a watch if bowing structures becomes
   evident/more likely.

   ..Hart/Darrow.. 07/10/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39758362 40558230 40948033 40327928 39277943 39018042
               38678262 39008350 39758362 

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