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Mesoscale Discussion 1277
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1277
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0503 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND...NWRN/CENTRAL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 052203Z - 052300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS THE
   EXTENT OF SVR TSTM COVERAGE...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED. A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 00Z.

   DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED STG TSTM OVER HARDING COUNTY SD WAS LOCATED
   ALONG A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH FAR WRN ND AND INTO NERN
   WY...AND AN ISOLATED TSTM HAD ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF
   SD. THE ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH IS CHARACTERIZED BY
   MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/KG/ GIVEN UPPER
   60S TO NEAR 70 DEW POINTS. MODESTLY STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR AVERAGING
   35-40 KTS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO IN PLACE OVER MOST
   OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL GLANCE THE ND PORTION
   OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING PROVIDING MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT. 
   GIVEN THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR
   LARGE HAIL AND SVR GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO
   CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVER TIME. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED...AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 00Z.

   ..BUNTING/HART.. 07/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45260392 46230381 46800357 47140317 47390275 47510177
               47430033 46829888 45669862 45059890 44519923 44099972
               43830010 43570184 44100338 45260392 

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Page last modified: July 05, 2014
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