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Mesoscale Discussion 1278
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1278
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0545 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 052245Z - 052345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
   EARLY EVENING HOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED
   AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM OVER ROSEAU COUNTY WAS LOCATED
   ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM SERN MANITOBA
   ACROSS NWRN MN.  DAYTIME HEATING OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /LOW 70S
   DEW POINTS/ HAS RESULTED IN STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF
   3500 J/KG/. A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE W/NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
   WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...ALONG WITH 25
   TO 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. A RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR TSTMS
   PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
   EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...A
   WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   ..BUNTING/HART.. 07/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...

   LAT...LON   48919640 48939554 48759514 48309465 48079470 47819481
               47689498 47549548 47509600 47719659 48469653 48919640 

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Page last modified: July 05, 2014
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