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Mesoscale Discussion 1278
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1278
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0248 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

   Areas affected...Northern IL...Northern and Central IN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101948Z - 102145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe storms capable of large hail and damaging
   winds may develop in the next 1-2 hours over parts of northern IL
   and northern/central IN.  A watch may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Recent water vapor loop shows a series of shortwave
   troughs rotating across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes region. 
   One feature is currently over MN and will track southeastward toward
   the discussion area this afternoon.  Strong heating over much of
   MO/IL, and persistent clouds over parts of IN, have resulted in a
   low-level baroclinic zone where continued southwesterly low-level
   winds will enhance warm advection and lift.  This corridor is
   expected to be the focus for scattered thunderstorm development in
   the 20-22z time frame.  Forecast soundings show sufficient low-level
   and deep-layer vertical shear for supercell structures capable of
   damaging wind gusts and hail.  A watch is being considered for this
   scenario.

   ..Hart/Darrow.. 07/10/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41768953 41428760 40988512 39708508 40308901 41199005
               41768953 

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Page last modified: July 10, 2017
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