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Mesoscale Discussion 1279
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1279
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0935 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN ND...EXTREME NORTH-CENTRAL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 393...

   VALID 060235Z - 060330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 393
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF
   WW 393.

   DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM WITH A HISTORY OF VERY LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 E BIS AND WAS MOVING
   E AT 40 KTS. ALTHOUGH THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AOA 3000 J/KG...THE ONSET OF DIURNAL
   COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CINH WITH TIME...AND
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS STABILIZED MUCH IF THE CENTRAL/WRN PORTIONS
   OF THE WW. THUS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SVR TSTMS WITHIN THE
   REMAINING PORTION OF WW IS UNCERTAIN...BUT ANY SUSTAINED TSTM THAT
   DOES DEVELOP WOULD ALSO HAVE SVR POTENTIAL GIVEN AVAILABLE
   INSTABILITY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PRESENCE OF 35 KTS OF
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR.

   ..BUNTING/HART.. 07/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45579922 45560085 45920100 46730117 47060135 47230116
               47290057 47229946 47119904 46979886 46129898 45579922 

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Page last modified: July 06, 2014
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