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Mesoscale Discussion 1279
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1279
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0508 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern WY...far southeastern
   MT...southwestern ND...and western SD/NE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 102208Z - 110015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated strong/damaging wind and large hail threat
   should persist through this evening. Watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
   across parts of the northern High Plains along a lee surface trough.
   A minor perturbation noted in water vapor satellite imagery across
   central/eastern WY may also be aiding convective development.
   Although mid-level winds are not overly strong (around 25-30 kt at
   500 mb), they do veer veer from southeasterly at the surface to
   westerly at mid levels. Resultant 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear
   will aid updraft organization and support some supercell structures
   with an associated large hail threat. The boundary layer along and
   east of the surface trough has become very well mixed late this
   afternoon, and temperature-dewpoint spreads around 30-40 F are now
   common outside of higher terrain and ongoing convection. Downdrafts
   may accelerate and reach severe levels at the surface owing to this
   well mixed boundary layer and related strong DCAPE. Current
   expectations are for the overall severe threat to remain isolated
   through this evening, and a narrow north-south corridor of weak
   instability along the surface trough should tend to limit the
   eastward extent of this threat. Therefore, watch issuance appears

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/10/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43710492 45660462 46760447 47310374 47390305 46900235
               45270197 43300187 41070205 41030324 41060472 41390503

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