Mesoscale Discussion 1280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017
Areas affected...Eastern Montana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 102247Z - 110015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms will continue to quickly move east
through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Strong,
gusty winds should be the primary threat. The overall wind threat
should remain sporadic enough to preclude the need of a severe
DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorms moving east across
central/eastern Montana have a history of producing winds between
55-70 mph at times. As these thunderstorms move farther east, into
eastern Montana, temperature-dewpoint spreads will become maximized.
This dry low-level airmass will continue to support evaporative
cooling beneath high cloud bases, leading to a continued threat for
strong, gusty thunderstorm outflows. The brief, sporadic nature of
the threat should preclude the need for a severe thunderstorm watch.
Later this evening, thunderstorms may approach a slightly more
favorable environment across portions of western North and South
Dakota. This may result in a slight increase in convective
intensity, however, this will be offset by lower
temperature-dewpoint spreads and an overall decreasing wind threat.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 45040808 46290813 48030769 48990719 49000399 48680322
46460250 45060273 44670442 44780656 45000767 45040808