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Mesoscale Discussion 1280
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1280
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA...N FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 021752Z - 021945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY TSTM
   CLUSTERS MAINLY SHIFTING E THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE GROWN UPSCALE
   INTO VERY LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS PROPAGATING EWD AT ABOUT 20-30
   KT ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER INTO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE. WHILE DEEP
   SHEAR BECOMES QUITE WEAK WITH SRN EXTENT /LESS THAN 10 KT IN N
   FL/...THE AMALGAMATION OF CLUSTERS AND DEEPENING COLD POOL COULD
   SUPPORT EMBEDDED/SPORADIC SWATHS OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS. WITH
   ROBUST DOWNSTREAM DIABATIC HEATING...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW
   PROBABILITY THAT THE DAMAGING WIND RISK COULD BECOME MORE THAN
   LOCALIZED ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 07/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   32268464 32518382 32488319 32358262 32178224 31978185
               31758165 31408158 30988162 30658188 30338259 30228353
               30228391 30288411 30668460 30978483 31338502 32268464 

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Page last modified: July 02, 2015
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