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Mesoscale Discussion 1280
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1280
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0547 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 102247Z - 110015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms will continue to quickly move east
   through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Strong,
   gusty winds should be the primary threat. The overall wind threat
   should remain sporadic enough to preclude the need of a severe
   thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorms moving east across
   central/eastern Montana have a history of producing winds between
   55-70 mph at times. As these thunderstorms move farther east, into
   eastern Montana, temperature-dewpoint spreads will become maximized.
   This dry low-level airmass will continue to support evaporative
   cooling beneath high cloud bases, leading to a continued threat for
   strong, gusty thunderstorm outflows. The brief, sporadic nature of
   the threat should preclude the need for a severe thunderstorm watch.

   Later this evening, thunderstorms may approach a slightly more
   favorable environment across portions of western North and South
   Dakota. This may result in a slight increase in convective
   intensity, however, this will be offset by lower
   temperature-dewpoint spreads and an overall decreasing wind threat.

   ..Marsh/Thompson.. 07/10/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   45040808 46290813 48030769 48990719 49000399 48680322
               46460250 45060273 44670442 44780656 45000767 45040808 

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Page last modified: July 11, 2017
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