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Mesoscale Discussion 1280
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1280
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1011 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN ND...NWRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 060311Z - 060415Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL BER POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 05Z.

   DISCUSSION...SVR TSTMS OVER SWRN MANITOBA WITH A HISTORY OF LARGE
   HAIL WERE MOVING SEWD ALONG A COLD FRONT...AND EXTRAPOLATION WOULD
   BRING THE STORMS INTO NERN ND AROUND 05Z. IN ADDITIONAL...REGIONAL
   RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
   AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SRN
   MANITOBA OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA
   REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG. LATEST
   HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MOVING SEWD
   ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IS MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KTS WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
   05Z.

   ..BUNTING/HART.. 07/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48999950 48979698 48999587 48569552 48389540 48039538
               47499512 46949545 46599572 46479599 46459655 46479704
               46559780 47119831 47819876 48999950 

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Page last modified: July 06, 2014
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