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Mesoscale Discussion 1281
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1281
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF SC...FAR SRN NC/ERN GA

   CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE 

   VALID 021858Z - 022030Z

   SUMMARY...AN UPGRADE TO CAT 2/SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION
   WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT THE 20Z D1 OUTLOOK. PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
   TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE IS NEAR 40 PERCENT.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS APPEAR TO BE CLUSTERING ACROSS UPSTATE
   SC INTO PARTS OF NERN GA WITHIN A BELT OF 30-40 KT 700-500 MB WLYS
   PER AREA VWP DATA. WITH RELATIVELY STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
   E-CNTRL GA INTO CNTRL SC AND 90/70-TYPE SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEW
   POINTS IN THE BROAD DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR SUPPORTING MLCAPE OF
   1000-2000 J/KG...INTENSIFICATION OF ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS INTO MORE
   THAN JUST A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND RISK IS POSSIBLE. BUT THIS WILL
   PROBABLY REQUIRE A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL TO FIRST DEVELOP GIVEN FLOW
   WEAKENING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS.

   ..GRAMS/GUYER/HART.. 07/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   34528167 34738083 34798003 34737949 34567908 34227886
               34027886 33817895 33267938 32828037 32918135 33098184
               33368249 33828253 34528167 

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Page last modified: July 02, 2015
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