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Mesoscale Discussion 1281
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1281
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0618 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of northern/central IL into
   northern/central IN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407...

   Valid 102318Z - 110045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across WW 407, with large hail and
   damaging winds possible. A tornado or two may also occur across
   parts of central IL in the short term.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is expected to continue increasing in
   coverage and intensity across parts of northern/central IL/IN over
   the next several hours as a 30-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet
   develops this evening. A convectively reinforced baroclinic zone
   remains draped from northwest to southeast across this region, and
   thunderstorms will likely favor a southeastward motion along this
   boundary. A strongly unstable airmass remains present across much of
   WW 407, with MLCAPE generally ranging from 2000-4000 J/kg per 23Z
   RAP Mesoanalysis. 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear will favor some
   updraft organization and occasional supercell structures, with both
   a large hail and damaging wind threat. With time, numerous
   thunderstorms should form along the baroclinic zone as low-level
   warm air advection strengthens, and strong to damaging winds will
   probably become the main severe threat later this evening. A tornado
   or two may also occur in the short term (through 01Z) across parts
   of central IL if convection can remain semi-discrete. Although
   low-level flow is veered to southwesterly per ILX VWP, effective SRH
   of 250-300 m2/s2 will support low-level rotation within any
   supercell.

   ..Gleason.. 07/10/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40669062 41869018 41638752 41208528 39808538 39658599
               39608667 39888851 40178998 40669062 

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Page last modified: July 11, 2017
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