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Mesoscale Discussion 1282
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1282
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN
   ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 021937Z - 022200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE ISSUANCE OF A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS PLACES A QUASISTATIONARY
   FRONT FROM THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE THROUGH W-CNTRL OK N OF CLINTON TO
   THE TULSA AREA EXTENDING ENEWD INTO PARTS OF SWRN MO. WITH THE FRONT
   HAVING OUTRUN DEEPER ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX
   FARTHER N...THE MOST NOTABLE EQUATORWARD SURGES OF LOW THETA-E 
   AIR -- ENCOURAGED BY THE OUTWARD SPREAD OF RAIN-COOLED AIR -- HAVE
   BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY N OF THE KS/OK BORDER.
   REGARDLESS...DIURNAL DIABATIC SFC HEATING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
   BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY...WITH THE 18Z
   LMN RAOB SAMPLING AROUND 2600 J/KG OF MLCAPE N OF THE BOUNDARY WITH
   ONLY LIMITED MLCINH. MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z OUN RAOB FOR CURRENT
   OKLAHOMA MESONET OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENERALLY SIMILAR MODERATE TO
   STRONG BUOYANCY S OF THE BOUNDARY WITH LITTLE CAPPING.

   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE CONVECTION
   DEEPENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH RECENT LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED
   IN GARFIELD COUNTY. TSTMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SCATTERED OWING TO
   PERSISTENT ASCENT INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE...ALONG WITH BAROCLINIC
   CIRCULATIONS DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE EDGES OF
   MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS...AND AS PBL CIRCULATIONS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN.
   SPEED-MAX RELATED CONVECTION IN KS MAY ALSO SPREAD SEWD INTO NRN OK
   AND INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER-THETA-E AIR.

   WITH THE STRONGEST DEEP SHEAR GENERALLY DISPLACED N OF THE STRONGEST
   BUOYANCY...CONFIDENCE IN WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT
   LIMITED. REGARDLESS...LARGE DCAPE EVIDENT IN THE 18Z LMN RAOB AND
   THE MODIFIED 12Z OUN RAOB OF 1000-1700 J/KG WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   SUPPORTING STRONG DOWNBURSTS/OUTFLOW WINDS ON AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
   BASIS. WITH STEEPENING TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND SUBSTANTIAL
   UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT MASS FLUXES...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 70
   MPH WITH MICROBURSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREAS NEAR/N OF OKLAHOMA
   CITY TO NORMAN TOWARD ENID AND EWD TO THE TULSA AND MCALESTER AREAS
   INTO WRN AR WILL BE AT GREATEST RISK FOR THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE
   EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SVR HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   34899709 35429833 36229915 36979907 37159842 36789653
               36689451 36719206 36339103 35489149 35019297 34789548
               34899709 

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Page last modified: July 02, 2015
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