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Mesoscale Discussion 1282
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1282
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0634 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of far southern IA and northern MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 102334Z - 110100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal wind/hail threat may continue for several hours
   before diminishing later this evening. Watch issuance is not

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along a cold front along
   the IA/MO border early this evening. While this convection is
   occurring within a very unstable airmass (MLCAPE 3500-4000 J/kg),
   mid-level flow weakens considerably with southward extent into
   southern IA and northern MO. Accordingly, weak shear will likely
   limit more robust updraft organization. But, at least some
   isolated/marginal severe threat should persist for several more
   hours given the degree of instability. Loss of diurnal heating will
   lead to slowly lessening instability later this evening, and the
   already marginal severe threat will likewise diminish. The risk for
   severe hail/wind will very likely remain too isolated/marginal to
   warrant a watch.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/10/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40639471 40859323 40849141 40329160 40019211 39949406
               40119473 40639471 

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