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Mesoscale Discussion 1283
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1283
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0335 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/ERN KS...SRN/ERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 022035Z - 022300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR-TSTM RISK WILL EXIST INTO THE LATE
   AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO INSOLATION IN
   THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ARE RESULTING
   IN DESTABILIZATION AS THE SFC LAYER WARMS AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE
   60S TO THE LOWER 70S. ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH/SPEED MAX CROSSING THE AREA IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
   TO FOSTER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS. GIVEN 30-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   SPEED MAX...A FEW ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED AND PERHAPS ROTATING STORMS
   MAY OCCUR WITH AN ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WIND RISK. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND THE DELAY OF SFC HEATING OWING TO EARLIER
   CONVECTION/CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE BUOYANCY...PRECLUDING A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   40829727 40059601 39289565 38719621 38629726 39179842
               40209923 40759907 40829727 

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Page last modified: July 02, 2015
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