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Mesoscale Discussion 1283
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1283
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0856 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of IL/IN and western OH

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407...

   Valid 110156Z - 110400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will continue in/near WW 407 for
   the next several hours before diminishing. Watch issuance downstream
   into southern IL/IN and western OH is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...A 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet and related warm
   air advection will provide forcing for ascent needed to maintain
   clusters of convection this evening moving mainly southeastward
   along/south of a surface boundary draped across northern IL into
   central IN. Generally 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear will allow
   for some convective organization, and marginally severe hail remains
   possible with semi-discrete cells, while strong to locally damaging
   winds will be more probable with several small clusters mainly
   across parts of western/central IL. The isolated tornado threat
   should continue to diminish this evening as thunderstorms become
   mainly elevated and messy linear modes disrupt low-level inflow to
   embedded updrafts. Loss of daytime heating and increasing convective
   inhibition will also have a slow detrimental effect on overall
   severe potential with ongoing thunderstorms in/near WW 407 through
   04Z. Downstream watch issuance into parts of southern IL/IN and
   western OH is unlikely.

   ..Gleason.. 07/11/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40569088 41539030 41458649 41058413 40368397 39378486
               38948743 39229056 40569088 

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