|Mesoscale Discussion 1283|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0856 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017
Areas affected...Portions of IL/IN and western OH
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407...
Valid 110156Z - 110400Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407
SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will continue in/near WW 407 for
the next several hours before diminishing. Watch issuance downstream
into southern IL/IN and western OH is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...A 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet and related warm
air advection will provide forcing for ascent needed to maintain
clusters of convection this evening moving mainly southeastward
along/south of a surface boundary draped across northern IL into
central IN. Generally 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear will allow
for some convective organization, and marginally severe hail remains
possible with semi-discrete cells, while strong to locally damaging
winds will be more probable with several small clusters mainly
across parts of western/central IL. The isolated tornado threat
should continue to diminish this evening as thunderstorms become
mainly elevated and messy linear modes disrupt low-level inflow to
embedded updrafts. Loss of daytime heating and increasing convective
inhibition will also have a slow detrimental effect on overall
severe potential with ongoing thunderstorms in/near WW 407 through
04Z. Downstream watch issuance into parts of southern IL/IN and
western OH is unlikely.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 40569088 41539030 41458649 41058413 40368397 39378486
38948743 39229056 40569088
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