Mesoscale Discussion 1284
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0921 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017
Areas affected...Portions of Western and Central Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 110221Z - 110345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have intensified across portions of
southwest Nebraska this evening. These thunderstorms will have the
potential for isolated large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds
for the next couple of hours, before weakening later this evening as
they move east-northeast.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed on the western apex of the
stronger instability as well as along and north of the instability
axis. Steep mid-level lapse rates and most-unstable CAPE values
between 1500-2000 J/kg, and deep-layer shear around 40 knots, should
support an isolated large-hail threat for the next couple of hours.
Additionally, low-level-lapse rates across the High Plains remain
fairly steep (at or above 8 C/km). This would suggest that a strong
thunderstorm wind gust or two will also be possible, at least until
boundary layer fully decouples.
With time, increasing coverage of elevated thunderstorms, as well as
increasing near-surface convective inhibition, should lead to an
overall decrease in thunderstorm intensity. Given the relatively
isolated nature of the threat, a weather watch is currently not
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 41040288 41980172 42469972 42249878 41649826 40619809
39979865 39639957 39610143 40160254 41040288