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Mesoscale Discussion 1284
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1284
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0921 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of Western and Central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 110221Z - 110345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have intensified across portions of
   southwest Nebraska this evening. These thunderstorms will have the
   potential for isolated large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds
   for the next couple of hours, before weakening later this evening as
   they move east-northeast.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed on the western apex of the
   stronger instability as well as along and north of the instability
   axis. Steep mid-level lapse rates and most-unstable CAPE values
   between 1500-2000 J/kg, and deep-layer shear around 40 knots, should
   support an isolated large-hail threat for the next couple of hours.
   Additionally, low-level-lapse rates across the High Plains remain
   fairly steep (at or above 8 C/km). This would suggest that a strong
   thunderstorm wind gust or two will also be possible, at least until
   boundary layer fully decouples. 

   With time, increasing coverage of elevated thunderstorms, as well as
   increasing near-surface convective inhibition, should lead to an
   overall decrease in thunderstorm intensity. Given the relatively
   isolated nature of the threat, a weather watch is currently not

   ..Marsh/Thompson.. 07/11/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41040288 41980172 42469972 42249878 41649826 40619809
               39979865 39639957 39610143 40160254 41040288 

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