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Mesoscale Discussion 1284
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1284
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0519 AM CDT SUN JUL 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394...

   VALID 061019Z - 061045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR
   ANOTHER HOUR OR SO ACROSS NWRN MN...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS MARGINAL.
   THE REMAINING PORTION OF WW 394 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 11Z...AND
   ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
   OVER NWRN MN...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD THROUGH SRN
   MANITOBA AND EXTREME NWRN MN. UPDRAFTS ARE PROBABLY ROOTED SOMEWHERE
   BETWEEN 750-700 MB...AND ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY
   DEEP-LAYER WINDS AND WEAK TO MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ISOLATED HAIL
   OR A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN PRESENCE OF
   STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL
   NOT BE ABLE TO TAP RICHER MOISTURE PRESENT IN THE NEAR-SFC LAYER
   WHICH...ALONG WITH MODEST CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR...SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
   INTENSITY OF DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS.

   ..DIAL.. 07/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   46409589 47759650 49049603 48649465 46329493 46409589 

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Page last modified: July 06, 2014
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