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Mesoscale Discussion 1285
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1285
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0444 PM CDT SUN JUL 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN...WRN/CNTRL WI...CNTRL/NRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 062144Z - 062245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
   FROM W-CENTRAL WI INTO SE MN. ARE IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
   WATCH ISSUANCE...AS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY
   STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BUT...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH
   REGARDS TO COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO INITIATE JUST AHEAD OF THE
   SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS W-CNTRL WI INTO SE MN PER LATEST VIS IMAGERY
   AND LIGHTNING DATA. ADDITIONAL CELLS APPEARS TO BE TRYING TO DEVELOP
   FURTHER SOUTH IN HOTTER...MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS N-CNTRL/NW IA
   AS WELL. 21Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM
   AIRMASS IS UNCAPPED...EXCEPT ACROSS SRN WI AND FAR NE IA WHERE CLOUD
   COVER HAS BEEN AN ISSUE ALL DAY AND WHERE ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG
   A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ONGOING. DESPITE THIS LIMITING
   FACTOR FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGHER
   SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS SE MN INTO PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL AND ERN
   IA ALONG THE GREATER INSTABILITY AXIS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND
   30-40 KT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS
   CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. WHILE STORMS MAY INITIALLY REMAIN DISCRETE
   ALONG THE FRONT...AS STORM MERGERS OCCUR AND OUTFLOWS INTERACT...AN
   EVENTUAL EVOLUTION TOWARD CLUSTERS OR BOWING SEGMENTS IS
   POSSIBLE...WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

   THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER OVER SRN WI POSES UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
   FAR E SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND ACROSS WI. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 07/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   42259514 42709566 43159541 44649363 45889246 46709197
               46799127 46499040 46038993 45138956 44318934 44108942
               43029007 41799141 41339258 41449364 41909473 42259514 

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Page last modified: July 06, 2014
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