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Mesoscale Discussion 1285
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1285
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0550 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...SRN
   KY...AND MUCH OF TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 022250Z - 030045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA MAY POSE A THREAT
   FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW
   ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
   FROM NRN AR/SRN MO TO WRN TN/KY...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED
   ALONG THIS SAME GENERAL CORRIDOR. ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...
   INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND
   DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MLCAPE RANGES
   FROM 1000-2000 J/KG PER RAP MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE MCD AREA.

   A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE MOVING OVER KY/TN
   EARLY THIS EVENING...WHICH COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT...MAY BE PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE
   LIFT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MID-LEVEL FLOW
   IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG PER AREA VWPS...BUT 25-35 KT OF WLY WINDS
   IN THE 4-6 KM AGL LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MAINLY
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
   OCCASIONAL/BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...SUCH AS ONE RECENTLY
   OBSERVED OVER BARREN COUNTY KY...MAY ALSO OCCUR. LIMITED EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE 12Z BNA SOUNDING
   SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY MUCH BEYOND CURRENT
   LEVELS. REGARDLESS...MULTICELL CLUSTERS SHOULD REMAIN CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE
   MARGINAL/ISOLATED EXPECTED THREAT.

   ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 07/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36679028 36868818 37028584 36928488 36178426 35128445
               35018562 35048820 35059008 36159116 36679028 

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Page last modified: July 03, 2015
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