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Mesoscale Discussion 1285
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1285
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern NE into portions of western and central IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 110654Z - 110930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally stronger wind gusts will
   be possible through the overnight to early this morning, as storms
   continue to develop and move to the east-southeast across eastern NE
   (generally near and north of the lower Platte River) into central
   IA.  The forecast coverage of stronger to severe storms to remain
   sporadic precludes the need for a severe thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery indicated occasional
   increases in storm strength, while lightning data showed greatest
   lightning coverage/intensities located in 1. a north-south area in
   central NE, 2. east-central NE, and 3. west-central IA.  These
   storms have developed within a low-level warm-air advection regime
   per a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet extending into
   eastern NE/western IA, and downstream of a midlevel impulse moving
   across central into eastern NE through 12Z.  Storms are tending to
   organize into clusters, though a linear band of storms was detected
   in central NE.  This activity should continue to develop and move to
   the east-southeast within a moderate instability gradient that
   extended from eastern NE into central and southeast IA.  This
   scenario confirms the forecast suggested by the last several runs of
   the HRRR. Steep midlevel lapse rates observed on 00Z soundings in
   this region are supportive of large hail with the elevated storms. 
   However, locally stronger wind gusts (40-45 kt) as observed in
   eastern NE during the last 1-2 hours will remain possible.

   ..Peters/Guyer.. 07/11/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42219916 42349692 42319573 42109431 41979371 41629336
               41429342 41019392 40979457 40999521 41079572 41199643
               41289732 41369786 41359866 41409908 41619921 42219916 

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Page last modified: July 11, 2017
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