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Mesoscale Discussion 1286
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1286
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0557 PM CDT SUN JUL 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN MT...NWRN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 062257Z - 070030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE MT/CANADA BORDER ARE FORECAST TO
   SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND SPREAD SEWD INTO THIS
   EVENING. A THREAT FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
   THESE STORMS ACROSS NERN MT AND NWRN SD...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS
   ARE THIS THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
   NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST 1-2
   HRS ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER N OF SCOBEY/PLENTYWOOD COUNTIES
   MT...LIKELY AIDED BY A GLANCING INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING
   ACROSS SRN SK. LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN RECENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW NEARLY
   UNIFORM W-NWLY FLOW IS IN PLACE...AND AS A RESULT WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE...WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT REMAINING LOOSELY FOCUSED. THE
   AIR MASS HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OWING TO SLIGHT COOLING OF
   MIDLEVEL TEMPS AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S
   F...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. 

   THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT ONGOING CONVECTION COULD ATTEMPT TO
   ORGANIZE INTO A SMALL LINE SEGMENT AND PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS FAR ERN
   MT AND WRN ND THIS EVENING...GIVEN THIS AREA IS LOCATED WITHIN A
   BELT OF 40-50 KT NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO STILL
   REMAINS UNCERTAIN OWING TO NEBULOUS FORCING FOR ASCENT AS PREVIOUSLY
   MENTIONED...AND AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR STRONG-SVR WINDS MAY BE
   PARTIALLY LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

   LAT...LON   48980606 48230508 47530367 47340236 47600129 48120098
               49000186 48980606 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2014
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