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Mesoscale Discussion 1286
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1286
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1016 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

   Areas affected...east-central IL and west-central IN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111516Z - 111545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe gusts are possible over the next
   hour.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a long-lived MCS located over
   east-central IL moving east-southeast at 45 kt.  Temperatures over
   west-central IN are steady in the upper 70s degrees F and have been
   stunted due to cloud cover and an earlier thunderstorm cluster of
   IN.  As a result, destabilization is not expected to increase
   further.  However, measured ASOS gusts of 46-kt at Decatur, IL at
   1436Z and 53-kt at Champaign, IL at 1457Z indicate at least some
   isolated risk for strong to severe gusts may persist in the near
   term.  Once the MCS overtakes a line located from near
   Crawfordsville to Greencastle, the risk for stronger gusts will
   probably decrease as rain-cooled outflow detrimentally interacts
   with the approaching MCS.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 07/11/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   40698780 40408666 39898640 39478666 39408730 39578832
               40698780 

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Page last modified: July 11, 2017
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