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Mesoscale Discussion 1286
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1286
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0604 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 022304Z - 030000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL RISK IS EXPECTED ACROSS NRN AR
   THIS EVENING.  THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
   SMALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD FROM MO TOWARD NRN
   AR...WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE
   SUPPORTED MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J PER KG/ S OF THE
   FRONT.  NRN AR IS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
   MID-UPPER WNWLY FLOW...AND THIS AREA WILL BE BRUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING SEWD OVER MO.  THUS...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE ACROSS NRN AR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELLS THROUGH LATE
   EVENING.  THE COVERAGE/DURATION OF ANY WIND/HAIL RISK IS SOMEWHAT IN
   QUESTION...BUT A SMALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BECOME
   WARRANTED FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.

   ..THOMPSON.. 07/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36459333 36519249 36499146 36419125 35969122 35679148
               35599253 35669326 35859360 36269350 36459333 

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Page last modified: July 03, 2015
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