MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1286
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1035 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND..NRN/CENTRAL MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 231535Z - 231730Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER W CNTRL MN ALONG AN OUTFLOW
   BNDRY/GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS OVER EXTREME SERN ND...WHILE
   ELEVATED STORMS OVER EAST CNTRL ND HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF SLOW
   STRENGTHENING DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
   FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   CONVECTIVE STORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN A PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC SHEAR
   ZONE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESSING
   NEWD ACROSS NRN ND INTO SRN MANITOBA.  THE WARM SECTOR ACTIVITY
   ACROSS WEST CNTRL MN IS MOVING INTO A CLOUD-FREE REGION THAT WILL
   EXPERIENCE STRONG DIABATIC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
   AFTERNOON.  THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
   AS THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING EXHIBITED SHALLOW DEPTH OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE...AND LATEST GPS DATA INDICATED LESS THAN 1 INCH IPW ACROSS
   SRN/CNTRL MN.  HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE FROM THE
   SOUTH INTO THE AREA...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE PBL WILL
   ENHANCE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.  THUS...CURRENT STORMS MAY GRADUALLY
   INTENSIFY DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AND A WW MAY BE
   NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   ..WEISS.. 06/23/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
   
   LAT...LON   45679550 46499606 47089729 47399849 47939831 48639677
               48739448 48479298 48089192 47209216 45989286 45719408
               45679550