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Mesoscale Discussion 1287
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1287
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0646 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386...

   VALID 022346Z - 030115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH
   CNTRL OK NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL
   REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. AT THE CURRENT TIME...A WW SOUTH OF WW
   386 IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL COUNTIES CAN BE ADDED
   TO THE CURRENT WW AS NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN OK IN VICINITY OF
   AN E-W FRONT. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING SWWD WITHIN A GENERALLY MARGINAL
   VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF PRIMARILY MULTICELLS.
   HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT IS SLIGHTLY
   STRONGER /30-40 KT/ AND SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES REMAIN
   POSSIBLE. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE
   ALONG WITH 6.5-7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS CNTRL OK. THIS
   ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS
   THAT STORMS MIGHT REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH
   AT LEAST 02Z...AFTER WHICH LOSS OF DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD RESULT IN
   A GRADUAL DECREASE.

   ..DIAL.. 07/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36809983 36499847 36359638 36409494 36389408 35829371
               35079421 34749512 34709691 35289895 36460033 36809983 

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Page last modified: July 03, 2015
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