Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1287
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1287 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1287
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0730 PM CDT SUN JUL 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND CNTRL ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 070030Z - 070115Z

   CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE INCREASING WITH A CLUSTER OF TSTMS
   CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WILLIAMS COUNTY ND. AS A RESULT...THIS AREA
   IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW...AS WELL AS AN UPGRADE TO A
   SLIGHT RISK IN THE UPCOMING 01Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK UPDATE. DMGG WINDS ARE
   LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF
   TSTMS OVER WILLIAMS COUNTY ND HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST HR. THE
   MOST NOTABLE STORM WAS A SUPERCELL CROSSING THE MT/ND BORDER AS OF
   0010Z...AND HAS PRODUCED SVR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. A MERGER
   WITH ATTENDANT STORMS TO THE E IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR...AND MAY
   RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL MCS PROPAGATING SEWD INTO CNTRL
   ND THIS EVENING. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE
   WRF-HRRR MODEL AS WELL. 

   GIVEN CONVECTIVE MODE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY /500-1000 J/KG/...THE
   PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE DMGG WIND GUSTS. CURRENT STORM MOTION
   OF AROUND 40 KT ALSO SUGGESTS AN ENHANCED WIND THREAT COULD
   MATERIALIZE. TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SVR
   TSTM WATCH...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED BY 01Z.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46670160 47600328 48350395 48800402 48990404 49000269
               48090048 47359954 46670018 46670160 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 07, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities