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Mesoscale Discussion 1288
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1288
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0926 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN GA...SRN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 031426Z - 031700Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
   IN CNTRL GA AND SHOULD AFFECT ERN GA AND SRN SC LATER THIS MORNING.
   HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE
   REGION.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN
   PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF COAST REGION NEWD INTO THE
   CAROLINAS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. THIS
   IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALREADY THIS MORNING ALONG
   AN AXIS FROM SE AL NEWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN GA. A LINE OF
   THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN NCNTRL GA ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WHERE WIND PROFILES ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND ENOUGH FLOW
   IS PRESENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THE ATLANTA WSR-88D VWP SHOWS
   DEEP WLY FLOW WITH 35 TO 40 KT FROM JUST ABOVE THE SFC TO AROUND 4
   KM. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ALONG
   THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD POOL CURRENTLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
   ATLANTA METRO. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
   THE REMAINDER OF ERN GA INTO SRN SC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
   WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD INCREASE AS SFC TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THE
   LINE LATE THIS MORNING.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC...

   LAT...LON   33878299 33168488 32728505 32258380 32078316 31848149
               32018070 32638004 33458020 33918200 33878299 

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Page last modified: July 03, 2015
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