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Mesoscale Discussion 1288
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1288
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0907 PM CDT SUN JUL 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN INTO ERN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 070207Z - 070300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS
   EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   STRONGEST STORMS. AREA CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...A FEW STRONGER CELLS WERE NOTED ON RADAR IN
   MADISION...JASPER...BENTON AND BUCHANAN COUNTIES IN IA JUST AHEAD OF
   THE SFC COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WERE ALONG THE AXIS OF GREATEST
   INSTABILITY IN AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS CNTRL IA. THE 00Z DVN RAOB
   SUGGESTS THAT CAPPING INCREASES WITH EASTERN EXTENT HOWEVER...SO
   LONGEVITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THESE STRONGER STORMS ARE LIKELY
   TAPPING INTO EXTREME INSTABILITY IN A NARROW CORRIDOR THAT RECEIVED
   STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONALLY...THE DVN 88-D VWP SHOWS
   AROUND 150-250 M2/S2 SRH...WHICH HELPS EXPLAIN THE MOSTLY
   SHORT-LIVED LAND SPOUT TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL IA THIS
   EVENING...AND THE LONGER-LIVED AND DEEPER TORNADO-PRODUCING
   MESOCYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAMA/BENTON COUNTY SUPERCELL. WHILE
   CURRENT PARAMETER SPACE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES...SEVERE
   POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE WITH EWD EXTENT AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS
   AND CAPPING INCREASES. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY
   INCREASE IN ACTIVITY...BUT A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
   BOTH EVOLUTION AND LONGEVITY OF THE ONGOING THREAT.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 07/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

   LAT...LON   41369490 41739354 42299216 42619140 42559089 42169053
               41669067 41269164 41039286 40899403 40929469 41069492
               41369490 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2014
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