MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1288
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0239 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...NWRN KS...SWRN AND CNTRL NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 231939Z - 232130Z
   
   AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER WRN/CNTRL
   NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL LIKELY.
   
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM SERN CO
   INTO SRN NEB AND SWRN IA. MEANWHILE...AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS
   STALLED OVER SWRN NEB...WITH NEWER OUTFLOW RACING SEWD OVER ERN NEB
   AND WRN IA.
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CU FIELDS INCREASING OVER ERN CO...NWRN KS
   AND SWRN NEB WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 90S F. THE 18Z
   LBF SOUNDING...WHEN MODIFIED FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND
   MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINT...IS UNCAPPED WITH VERY STRONG
   INSTABILITY. WIND FIELDS WERE A BIT WEAK OVER ERN CO AND KS...BUT
   INCREASE TO 30-50 KT 500 TO 300 MB FLOW ACROSS CNTRL NEB. GIVEN
   BACKED SURFACE FLOW ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY...THIS WOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE LNX VWP...ALTHOUGH WELL N OF THE SFC
   BOUNDARY...SHOWS A VERY FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH FOR SUPERCELLS.
   
   CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW...AS
   WELL AS AN IMPINGING SLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SEVERE
   STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
   RIDGING MAY HAMPER POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STRONGER
   CELLS COULD ACQUIRE SIGNIFICANT ROTATION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
   TORNADO IF IT MOVES ALONG AND ONTO THE COOL...BUT STILL
   UNSTABLE...SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS LARGE.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/23/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   40779960 40090071 39380192 39360258 40150331 41760235
               42070163 42180029 42179906 41799777 41389742 40909792
               40779960