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Mesoscale Discussion 1288
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1288
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0626 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

   Areas affected...eastern South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 112326Z - 120130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...At least isolated storms are in the process of developing
   over eastern South Dakota. These storms will pose a risk for
   isolated large hail and downburst winds. Some uncertainty still
   exists regarding overall coverage of severe events and duration of
   the threat. Trends will continue to be monitored for a possible WW.

   DISCUSSION...Early this evening satellite trends show towering
   cumulus and an isolated storm or two developing along a pre-frontal
   trough that extends across eastern SD. Latest objective analysis
   shows the atmosphere to be strongly unstable with a corridor of up
   to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40 kt 0-6 km shear supportive of
   mid-level updraft rotation, and storms will likely intensify as they
   develop east. The weak low-level flow, weak forcing aloft and onset
   of nocturnal cooling might limit duration of threat. Nevertheless,
   this environment will promote a risk for isolated large hail and
   downburst winds through at least early evening.

   ..Dial/Thompson.. 07/11/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   43809869 44699818 45469781 45849740 45749665 44779661
               43479701 43209807 43809869 

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