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Mesoscale Discussion 1290
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1290
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1111 PM CDT SUN JUL 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI...NE IL...SW LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 070411Z - 070515Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
   INTO SE WI/NE IL AND SW LOWER MI. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   FURTHER STORM INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION.

   DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH
   STORMS CURRENTLY INCREASING FROM SE WI/NE IL TOWARD SW LOWER MI.
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED THIS EVENING TO AROUND 30-35
   KT AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL IN CONJUNCTION WITH APPROACHING UPPER
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE SOME WEAK INHIBITION EXISTS DUE TO DIURNAL
   COOLING...MLCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG AND ADEQUATE MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
   SUPPORT CONTINUED THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WSR-88D VWP/S
   FROM CHICAGO...GRAND RAPIDS AND MILWAUKEE INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH VALUES
   GREATER THAN 250 M2/S2 WHICH ALSO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
   DOWNBURST OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH STRONGER BETTER ORGANIZED
   CELLS.  TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER
   INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 07/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   42918916 43118867 43268790 43348630 42968542 42598530
               42338528 42088538 41858610 41618725 41818929 42118960
               42678940 42918916 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2014
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