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Mesoscale Discussion 1290
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1290
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0949 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

   Areas affected...northeast Iowa through southern Wisconsin and
   northern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 120249Z - 120445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms (a few with some supercell structures) are expected
   to continue developing northeast through northern IL and southern WI
   this evening. Primary threat appears to be a few instances of large
   hail. However, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Overall threat
   does not appear sufficient for a WW but trends will continue to be

   DISCUSSION...As of mid evening a cluster of storms has initiated
   over northeast IA into southern WI and northern IL. Activity is
   developing in response to a strengthening southwesterly low-level
   jet which is augmenting isentropic ascent and destabilization near
   and north of a warm front that stretches from north central IA into
   northern IL. The 0-1 km Hodograph size will increase further as the
   low-level jet strengthens, but this will occur with a stabilizing
   boundary layer which suggests storms should become increasingly
   elevated. Large hail should remain the primary threat with this
   activity, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out before the surface
   layer decouples.

   ..Dial/Thompson.. 07/12/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41708831 42239051 42689159 43509219 43699037 42698819

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