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Mesoscale Discussion 1290
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1290
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0159 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO...NE NM...SW KS...NW OK...NRN TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 031859Z - 032130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SE CO
   AND NE NM. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE
   EAST ACROSS SW KS...THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AND IN NW OK. WW ISSUANCE
   MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE WRN PART OF THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN
   PLACE. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SRN CO AND NE NM ARE
   GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN
   AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ANALYZED FROM THE ERN OK PANHANDLE NWWD
   INTO SE CO WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500
   J/KG RANGE. CONVECTION HAS INITIATED OVER THE LAST HOUR ON THE WRN
   EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SANGRE DE
   CRISTO MOUNTAINS FROM WEST OF PUEBLO TO NEAR RATON NM. AS SFC TEMPS
   CONTINUE TO WARM...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INITIATE AND
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS
   INCLUDING THE HRRR. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR PUEBLO AND RATON FOR
   THIS AFTERNOON SHOW SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO
   500 MB WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF NWLY FLOW JUST ABOVE 500 MB. THIS WIND
   PROFILE SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 8.0 C/KM WILL AID
   IN THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST OF
   STORMS. AS DOWNDRAFTS MATURE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS SW KS AND NW OK WHERE
   MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS STRONG
   ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36869987 37400036 37800114 38320278 38960361 39080390
               38980452 37940617 36920642 36170617 35810537 36040288
               36040193 36000032 36349981 36869987 

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Page last modified: July 03, 2015
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