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Mesoscale Discussion 1291
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1291
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...NRN LA...WRN AND CNTRL MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 031958Z - 032230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SRN
   AR...NRN LA AND WRN TO CNTRL MS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE
   MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS FROM THE
   ARKLATEX EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY
   WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. IN SPITE
   WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...SFC
   TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 F ALONG THE MOIST AXIS
   WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THE
   STRONGEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM CNTRL LA EXTENDING
   NEWD INTO FAR SE AR AND WRN MS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN
   THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40
   KT OF WLY FLOW FROM 3 TO 5 KM AGL EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS
   SHOULD SUPPORT CELL ORGANIZATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE
   SHOULD INCREASE AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON. IF
   A COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE...THEN WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
   ALONG THE LEADING EDGE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SHORT LINE SEGMENTS.
   HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS CELLS MOVE EWD TOWARD THE
   MS RIVER WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32409001 32229117 32359244 32699321 33489345 33979310
               34049170 34199066 34028969 33528941 32848961 32409001 

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Page last modified: July 03, 2015
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