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Mesoscale Discussion 1291
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1291
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0200 AM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL THROUGH SERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 070700Z - 070830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MOSTLY HAIL NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS. LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS MIGHT ALSO ACCOMPANY SOME
   STORMS. THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A WW...BUT
   AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SERN NEB WITHIN A
   ZONE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF A FRONT LOCATED OVER NRN KS.
   ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH AROUND
   1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORMS ARE BASED
   FROM 750-700 MB WITH MODERATELY STEEP /7-7.5 C/KM/ LAPSE RATES AND
   WEAK SHEAR THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
   SUPPORT MULTICELL UPDRAFTS THAT MAY PRODUCE INSTANCES OF 1-1.5 INCH
   HAIL. DRY AIR IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER MIGHT ALSO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS
   BENEATH THE STRONGER REFLECTIVITY CORES.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 07/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41149910 41049709 40549626 40139687 40769960 41149910 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2014
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