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Mesoscale Discussion 1292
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1292
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0504 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES THROUGH CNTRL OK AND NWRN ARK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 032204Z - 040000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS AND
   SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH 02Z. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SFC FRONT FROM NWRN ARK
   THROUGH CNTRL OK AND NWWD INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. WHILE MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED WHERE
   TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO 90 F WHICH ALONG WITH NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS
   ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. STORMS ARE EMBEDDED
   WITHIN MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST WINDS WITHIN THE HIGHER
   REFLECTIVITY CORES. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 01Z WITH
   ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 07/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36430194 35699892 35459710 35719552 36079469 36379404
               35959366 35089431 34549558 34349729 34639891 35900168
               36430194 

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