MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1292
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0547 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE W-CNTRL FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 499...
   
   VALID 232247Z - 232345Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 499
   CONTINUES.
   
   THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLD STRONG/DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL PROBABLY
   CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE W-CNTRL FL PENINSULA THE NEXT HOUR OR
   SO BEFORE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION OCCURS DURING THE
   EVENING HOURS.
   
   RECENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ORIENTED
   NW-SE FROM ORANGE TO OSCEOLA COUNTY WITH A DECAYING BOW/COMMA HEAD
   MOVING SWD ACROSS THE FL KEYS.  22Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS
   SHOWS A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MORE OR
   LESS STATIONARY...ROUGHLY 35 MILES INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST.  THE
   AIRMASS TO THE E OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RAIN COOLED WITH TEMPS
   ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S WHEREAS TO THE W OF THE BOUNDARY...VERY
   MOIST/WARM SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE POTENTIAL
   INSTABILITY /2500 J/KG MLCAPE/ ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODIFIED RUC
   SOUNDINGS.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SSWWD TOWARDS
   THE W-CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA AS WEAK LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY MAY FAVOR ADDITIONAL STORM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND TO THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. 
   ISOLD STRONG/DMGG WET MICROBURSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
   
   ..SMITH.. 06/23/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
   
   LAT...LON   26388189 27408238 28128252 28528226 28348174 28078128
               27788100 27398088 26538129 26298157 26388189