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Mesoscale Discussion 1292
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1292
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern MN into western and
   central WI

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410...

   Valid 120649Z - 120900Z

   CORRECTED AREAS AFFECTED, AND GRAPHIC FOR DEPICTION OF WW 410 AND
   DISCUSSION AREA.

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong/damaging wind gusts and large hail remain
   severe-weather threats across WW 410 as storms continue to develop
   and spread to the east in central and southern MN.  A new severe
   thunderstorm watch is being considered to the east of WW 410 across
   parts of northern and central WI.

   DISCUSSION...Time lapse of mosaic radar imagery during the early
   overnight indicated storms have been clustering across the northern
   portion of WW 410 in central MN (Douglas County to Kanabec County)
   and tracking to the east at 35-40 kt.  Meanwhile, a smaller cluster
   of storms was moving east through McLeod County, MN.  Additional
   storms were developing to the north-northeast into west-central WI
   (Trempealeau to Monroe counties) with rapid cloud-top cooling per IR
   satellite imagery. Modest southwesterly low-level winds (20-25 kt)
   across southern MN will continue advect moisture into southern MN
   and western/central WI with surface dew points in the upper 60s to
   70 F.  This combined with steep midlevel lapse rates will support
   additional destabilization (MUCAPE increasing to 2000-3500 J/kg)
   across WI through 12Z.  This thermodynamic improvement is
   represented in the special 06Z MPX sounding, which also had a 4.2
   g/kg increase since 00Z of the mean mixing ratio - now at 17.8 g/kg.

   Aside from the 00Z Hi-res WRF-ARW and the recent two runs of the
   HRRR (04Z/05Z), CAMS lack a good representation of ongoing storms
   across the upper MS Valley.  Given a modest low-level jet and
   westerly flow aloft across the northern tier of the U.S., the
   potential exists for ongoing storms in central MN to evolve into a
   forward propagating north-south oriented line of storms, as this
   activity reaches western WI between 08-09Z.  Convective trends will
   be monitored in the short term, and if bowing segments develop, then
   a new WW would be needed to the east of WW 410.

   ..Peters.. 07/12/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   44169415 44369452 45059474 45569487 46219464 46709475
               47379465 47449414 47339383 46509376 46369360 46249312
               45959167 45779048 45488972 45268942 44408911 43608909
               43568967 43589133 44109189 44169415 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2017
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