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Mesoscale Discussion 1292
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1292
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 AM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...SRN VT...SRN NH...MA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 071646Z - 071815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NY...SRN VT...SRN NH AND MA. HAIL
   MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
   ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE EXTENDING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST NNEWD INTO SRN NEW
   ENGLAND. MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS
   INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S F ACROSS THE MCD AREA WITH MODERATE
   INSTABILITY IN PLACE FROM NJ NWD INTO SERN NY. SBCAPE IS ESTIMATED
   IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ACCORDING
   TO RAP-V2 DATA. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND NEWD
   ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS ALONG WITH 50
   KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE ALBANY WSR-88D VWP SHOULD SUPPORT
   A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE LINE. THE LINE MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. AN EWD
   FORWARD SPEED NEAR 45 TO 50 MPH SHOULD ALSO AID THE WIND-DAMAGE
   POTENTIAL. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON...HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
   EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

   LAT...LON   43587389 42787447 42207406 42027162 42497089 43537118
               43587389 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2014
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