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Mesoscale Discussion 1293
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1293
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1218 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL INTO E-CNTRL IND / W-CNTRL INTO E-CNTRL OH
   / WV PANHANDLE / WRN PA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 071718Z - 071845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE IND-OH-WRN PA I-70 CORRIDOR.  STRONG TO
   LOCALLY SEVERE MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CORES.

   DISCUSSION...17Z SATELLITE/SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WEAKENING
   FRONTAL ZONE OVER LOWER MI SWWD INTO W-CNTRL IL AND A PRE-FRONTAL
   DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE GENERALLY INVOF THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM
   W-CNTRL IL EWD TO 30 MI S DNV TO 40 MI NW DAY AND INTO NWRN PORTIONS
   OF PA.  CONVECTION HAS PREFERENTIALLY DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS ZONE
   THUS FAR AND EXPECTING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND
   INTENSIFY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AS CINH WEAKENS.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO
   THE NERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A PARTIAL IMPETUS FOR
   ADDITIONAL STORMS...WITH TRAILING AND LESSENING INFLUENCE FROM THIS
   MID-LEVEL WAVE FARTHER SW OVER WRN OH AND IND.  AS A RESULT...THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE MAY BE HIGHEST FROM ERN OH INTO PA.  

   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN WRN PA TO NEAR
   70 DEG F IN W-CNTRL IND ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
   /1000-2500 J PER KG MLCAPE/ EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SWLY SURFACE
   WINDS VEERING TO WLY IN THE MID-LEVELS /30-40 KT/ ARE RESULTING IN
   20-30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND YIELD STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELLULAR
   MODES.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 07/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   39828734 41108022 40967964 40677950 40327994 39088681
               39228730 39688748 39828734 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2014
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