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Mesoscale Discussion 1293
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1293
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0536 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL MS...CNTRL AL...AND FAR W-CNTRL
   GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 032236Z - 040000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE
   THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY
   DISCRETE STORMS. DEPENDING ON STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
   BISECTS THE MCD AREA FROM W TO E...LYING ROUGHLY ACROSS CNTRL MS
   INTO CNTRL AL. A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
   REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 70S CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF
   1500-2500 J/KG PER RAP MESOANALYSIS. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW OF
   35-45 KT PRESENT ON AREA VWPS SUGGESTS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
   THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ACQUIRE SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO SUPPORT
   MULITCELL AND OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE SUCH SUPERCELL
   THAT HAS MOVED FROM BIBB INTO CHILTON COUNTY AL HAS PRODUCED LARGE
   HAIL UP TO 1.50 INCH IN DIAMETER. 

   ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD OVER W-CNTRL MS MAY BE
   ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT MCV FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT IN OK.
   GIVEN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT...THIS ACTIVITY
   MAY POSE MORE OF A STRONG/DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT CONTINUES
   MOVING OVER CNTRL MS WITH TIME. IF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE REMNANT
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR THE CLUSTER OF STORMS IN W-CNTRL MS INCREASE
   IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THEN A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

   ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 07/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32759105 33399101 33789043 33698828 33528628 33408514
               31968469 31778518 31908768 32239027 32759105 

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Page last modified: July 04, 2015
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