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Mesoscale Discussion 1294
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1294
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1136 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN MS...EXTREME W-CENTRAL AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 041636Z - 041830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS
   THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. TRENDS IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
   MONITORED AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 18Z.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN
   EAST-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BISECTING THE STATE OF
   MISSISSIPPI...WITH RECENT MOTION TO THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10 MPH. A
   WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
   LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY
   INTENSIFYING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED COLD
   POOL OVER WEST-CENTRAL MS...AND ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE E-W
   BOUNDARY FROM NEAR JACKSON TO JUST NORTH OF MERIDIAN. AMPLE HEATING
   OF THE MOIST AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A
   MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...AND 25-35 KTS OF WSW
   FLOW IN THE 2-4 KM AGL LAYER IS FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH OVERALL STORM
   MOTIONS. A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
   WITH THE EASTWARD-MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY NEAR AND
   SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AND AN ISOLATED THREAT WILL EXIST WITH
   THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL MS/FAR
   W-CENTRAL AL.

   RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 18Z.

   ..BUNTING/MEAD.. 07/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32918949 32889023 32649060 32359078 32149084 31909079
               31709052 31578979 31598923 31818859 32338824 32748837
               32918949 

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Page last modified: July 04, 2015
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