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Mesoscale Discussion 1294
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1294
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0110 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...CNTRL AND NRN PA...SRN AND CNTRL NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 071810Z - 071915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OH...CNTRL AND NRN PA INTO SRN AND CNTRL NY.
   THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG THIS
   CORRIDOR AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
   IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY EXTENDING EWD ACROSS PA AND
   SRN NY. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA
   WHERE SBCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR FROM NEAR BUFFALO
   NY SWWD TO COLUMBUS OH AND EWD ACROSS NRN PA AND SRN NY. SHORT-TERM
   HRRR FORECASTS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE MOVING EWD TOWARD THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW 0-6 KM
   SHEAR IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
   ABOVE 1 KM. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE AS INSTABILITY
   AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF A
   BOWING LINE-SEGMENT AND COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE...THEN THE WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME ENHANCED LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   MCD AREA.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   40378016 40797791 41097514 41317366 42007333 42687353
               43137448 42847737 42327964 41528117 41008158 40498132
               40378016 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2014
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