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Mesoscale Discussion 1295
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1214 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...FAR SE VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 041714Z - 041915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS ERN NC AND
   FAR SE VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BOWING LINE
   SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
   POTENTIAL WW.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SEVERAL SUBTLE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WLY/SWLY FLOW OF THE LARGE
   UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. THE LEAD
   SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA WHILE A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS
   MOVING IN WRN WV. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NC HAS
   RESULTED IN INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS TREND IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES NEWD AND DAYTIME
   HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES THE AIRMASS. 

   RECENT VAD DATA FROM RAX AND 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM MHX SHOW
   MODERATE...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW FROM ABOUT 1 TO 5 KM. WHILE THIS
   FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT SHOULD HELP PROMOTE AT LEAST
   SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND A RESULTING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
   WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS
   STORM COVERAGE. TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED AND A WATCH
   MAY BE NECESSARY IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 07/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   36067788 36297764 36677728 36847693 36867646 36827621
               36557615 36037627 35157680 34557752 34387781 34287831
               34667905 35617828 36067788 

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Page last modified: July 04, 2015
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