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Mesoscale Discussion 1295
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0145 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CNTRL MO / S-CNTRL IL / SWRN AND W-CNTRL IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 071845Z - 072015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLD LARGE
   HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
   THE IL/MO BORDER NEAR SAINT LOUIS EWD INTO SWRN IND.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE FROM 20 MI NNW HUF WSWWD TO 40 MI NW STL. 
   A SMALL CLUSTER OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED OVER
   JERSEY AND MACOUPIN COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS AS OF 1835Z.  SURFACE
   CONDITIONS S OF THE WSWWD-ORIENTED CLOUD SHIELD ARE CHARACTERIZED BY
   TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS 70-72 DEG F. 
   MODIFYING THE 12Z ILX RAOB FOR THESE CONDITIONS YIELDS A VERY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS /3600 J PER KG MLCAPE/.  THE VWP DATA FROM KLSX
   SHOWS UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW AND IS YIELDING AROUND 20 KT
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE PULSATING MULTICELLULAR
   STORMS WILL POTENTIALLY BE CAPABLE OF ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND
   MICROBURSTS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED DMGG WIND GUSTS.  STORMS WILL
   PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BOTH INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY FURTHER
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED
   OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 07/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39049078 39698699 39138648 38478666 37928756 37908956
               38269061 38709094 39049078 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2014
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