MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0733 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MN THROUGH NWRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500...
   
   VALID 240033Z - 240100Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500
   CONTINUES.
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500 WILL EXPIRE AT 01Z. OVERALL THREAT
   APPEARS MARGINAL...AND ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL MN SWWD THROUGH NERN SD. THE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
   MODEST INSTABILITY FROM NERN SD THROUGH N-CNTRL MN EAST OF THE FRONT
   AND WEST OF A MULTILAYER CLOUD DECK. VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
   INDICATE A BAND OF ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG
   THE FRONT OVER NRN MN AND ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL MN.
   SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOP...40-45 KT BULK SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT
   CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
   IS NOT HIGH THAT MORE THAN ISOLATED STORMS AT MOST WILL OCCUR DUE TO
   APPARENT MID-UPPER SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD INTO
   WRN ONTARIO AND A TENDENCY FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO STABILIZE WITH
   ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/24/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...
   
   LAT...LON   48009075 45949105 45959280 47739305 48259248 48009075