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Mesoscale Discussion 1295
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0907 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...WRN AND SRN OK...NW TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388...389...

   VALID 160207Z - 160400Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   388...389...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX
   PANHANDLE AND WRN OK EVENTUALLY SPREADING SEWD INTO NW TX AND SCNTRL
   OK. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   IS ONGOING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF AMARILLO TX NEWD TO JUST WEST OF
   WICHITA KS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS LOCATED ON THE NWRN EDGE OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
   60S TO NEAR 70 F AND MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3500
   J/KG RANGE. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE LOW
   ROLLING PLAINS AND ALONG THE RED RIVER IN NORTH TX AND SRN OK. THE
   ENVIRONMENT ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
   SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING
   THE ESRL HRRR MOVE THE COLD POOL INTO WRN OK AND ACROSS NW TX 
   THROUGH THIS LATE EVENING WHERE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
   WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH NEW WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
   DOWNSTREAM OF WW 388...THE ESRL HRRR WEAKENS THE LINE AROUND 06Z
   SUGGESTING THAT THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE CONTAINED BY THE CURRENT
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NEW WW ISSUANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WW
   388 APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM BUT STILL CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.

   ..BROYLES.. 07/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33569854 33969754 34819731 36319743 36869799 36949841
               36919924 36210007 35390132 35180169 34900195 34260192
               33640085 33410001 33569854 

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Page last modified: July 16, 2016
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