MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1296
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0921 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB AND NRN THOUGH E CNTRL MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501...503...
   
   VALID 240221Z - 240315Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   501...503...CONTINUES.
   
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT EXISTS IN SRN EXTENTION OF WW 503 ACROSS E
   CNTRL MO...BUT IS BECOMING MARGINAL. THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
   DOWNBURSTS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REMAINS ACROSS SERN NEB PORTION
   OF WW 501...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS LIMITED.
   
   A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM SE NEB WNWWD THROUGH CNTRL
   NEB. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN MO NWWD THROUGH
   SERN NEB. NRN MO PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS CONVECTIVELY
   ACTIVE...AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING SWD ALONG INSTABILITY
   GRADIENT NEXT COUPLE HOURS. STORMS ALONG LEADING GUST FRONT ARE NOT
   AS ROBUST AS EARLIER THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO A REGION
   WHERE THE MEAN FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER IS RELATIVELY WEAK NLY
   ALONG NERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL WILL
   CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SWD...FORWARD PROPAGATION NEXT COUPLE
   HOURS...BUT INCREASING SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
   PRESENCE OF ONLY WEAK DEEP LAYER WINDS SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND THREAT
   IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL.
   
   ANY SEVERE THREAT OVER SERN NEB IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED. ONLY
   A LONE STORM REMAINS IN VICINITY OF FRONT ACROSS SERN NEB.
   HOWEVER...INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH A
   STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THREAT IN THIS REGION WILL REMAIN
   LIMITED UNTIL POSSIBLY LATER TONIGHT WHEN STORMS MAY MOVE INTO A
   PORTION OF SERN NEB FROM THE WEST.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/24/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...
   
   LAT...LON   39769113 39189098 38739157 38849248 39549275 39569193
               39769113