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Mesoscale Discussion 1296
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1296
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1109 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...NCNTRL TX...SW OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389...

   VALID 160409Z - 160615Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE
   MORE HOURS ACROSS NW TX AD SW OK POSSIBLY REACHING PARTS OF NCNTRL
   TX AND SCNTRL OK AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD BECOME
   MORE ISOLATED AND MARGINAL WITH TIME AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WW 389. A LOCAL EXTENSION IN AREA
   AND TIME COULD BE NEEDED ALONG THE STRONGEST SEGMENT OF THE LINE AS
   IT APPROACHES THE SERN EDGE OF THE WATCH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LINEAR MCS OVER THE SRN
   TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING NEWD INTO WRN OK. THE MCS IS LOCATED ALONG
   THE NWRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE SERN
   PART OF WW 389 SEWD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER AND INTO NCNTRL TX. MLCAPE
   VALUES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ARE ESTIMATED FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH
   700-500 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM RANGE. THIS ALONG WITH
   MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLY
   HAIL WITH CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE MORE INTENSE PORTION OF THE LINE. IN
   ADDITION...A SEWD MOVEMENT OF THE LINE AT NEAR 35 KT ALONG WITH
   INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO SHOULD HELP TO
   MAINTAIN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. IN SPITE OF THIS...SHORT-TERM MODEL
   FORECASTS INCLUDING THE ESRL HRRR SUGGEST THAT THE LINE WILL
   GRADUALLY BECOME DISORGANIZED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH
   WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WW 389...THE
   LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER 06Z WITH THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMING
   ISOLATED AND MARGINAL.

   ..BROYLES.. 07/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   35939885 35669943 35149981 34680058 34380124 33870152
               33130149 32760125 32550069 32459981 32609815 32809739
               33169713 34229731 35099773 35759811 35939841 35939885 

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Page last modified: July 16, 2016
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