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Mesoscale Discussion 1296
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1296
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0143 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MT...WRN/CENTRAL ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 041843Z - 042045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND IN ADVANCE
   OF A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
   AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
   STRONGEST STORMS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WATCH IS LIKELY
   PRIOR TO 20Z.

   DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
   NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MT...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT
   OVER FAR NORTHEAST MT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE LOW INTO
   WESTERN SD. STRONG HEATING AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S HAVE
   RESULTED IN MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...AND A
   VEERING WIND PROFILE HAS RESULTED IN 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 

   VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW TOWERING CU AND AN
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT...AND WITH LITTLE
   REMAINING CINH THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT AND
   SURFACE TROUGH. INITIAL STORM MODE SHOULD BE SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN THE
   LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
   PRIMARY THREATS. LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS/HIGH LCLS WILL
   TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. WITH
   TIME...STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS
   BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT.

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND A WATCH IS LIKELY
   PRIOR TO 20Z.

   ..BUNTING/MEAD.. 07/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...

   LAT...LON   46940356 47030574 47250628 47680653 48220653 49000525
               49000272 48960074 48690021 47439959 46629983 46539999
               46940356 

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Page last modified: July 04, 2015
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