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Mesoscale Discussion 1296
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1296
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0153 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 071853Z - 072030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS CELLS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...WW
   ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 993-MB LOW OVER ONTARIO
   WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE LOWER OH
   VALLEY. A DISTINCT POST-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT IS LOCATED FROM THE NORTH
   SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR EXTENDING SWWD INTO CNTRL MN. SFC DEWPOINTS
   AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT IN NRN WI AND CNTRL MN ARE IN THE LOWER TO
   MID 60S F. THIS ALONG WITH SFC HEATING HAS RESULTED IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MCD AREA WITH SBCAPE
   ESTIMATED AROUND 1500 J/KG RANGE BY RAP-V2 DATA. SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING ALONG THE INSTABILITY CORRIDOR.
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY...SHOULD HELP
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
   MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88 VWPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
   MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL THREAT. SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO CAN
   NOT BE RULED OUT. CELLS THAT ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS MAY
   CONTAIN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   46289199 46479323 46029413 45089430 43969200 43648993
               44588894 45659030 46289199 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2014
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