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Mesoscale Discussion 1297
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1297
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0319 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CNTRL CO / NWRN AND N-CNTRL KS / SWRN AND
   S-CNTRL NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 072019Z - 072215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLD HIGH-BASED MULTICELL STORMS OVER FAR E-CNTRL CO AND
   NWRN KS WILL INITIALLY BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY A LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND
   GUST THREAT.  THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT AND SEVERE COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE KS/NEB BORDER REGION.

   DISCUSSION...20Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A STALLED
   FRONTAL ZONE INVOF THE KS/NEB BORDER AND REACHING A LOW NEAR GLD. 
   HIGH-BASED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG WIND SHIFT
   FROM NEAR ITR WWD ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.  CONDITIONS TO THE E OF
   THE LOW AND N OF THE STALLED FRONT CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH
   SURFACE TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 80S IN SWRN NEB TO THE LOW 100S OVER
   NWRN KS.  MOIST LOW LEVELS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW- TO MID-60S
   DEWPOINTS HAS LED TO STRONG TO VERY BUOYANT AIRMASS /2000-3500 J PER
   KG MLCAPE/ INVOF THE U.S.-83 AND U.S.-283 CORRIDORS.  INVERTED-V
   PROFILES OVER NWRN KS WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL SEVERE-GUST THREAT.  

   AS A 50+ KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD FROM SD INTO
   PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ
   OVER N-CNTRL AND NERN KS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
   STORMS TO DEVELOP AND AID IN SUSTAINING EXISTING STORM ACTIVITY. 
   THE PROBABILITY FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL PROBABLY
   INCREASE WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY ONCE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
   APPEARS IMMINENT TO THE E OF THE STORMS NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 07/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39200275 39790210 40900170 41120039 40869832 40149775
               39389779 38729836 38490138 38840248 39200275 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2014
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