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Mesoscale Discussion 1297
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1297
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0333 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

   Areas affected...Central to northeast IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 122033Z - 122200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk for severe hail and wind should increase as
   storms increase along a cold front. However, this threat may remain
   too spatially confined to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...A west/east-oriented cluster is ongoing over
   west-central IA centered between the I-80 and US-30 corridors, with
   convection increasing to the northeast along a cold front from Boone
   to Chickasaw counties. A confined plume of moderate to large
   buoyancy is likely present just ahead of the front northeastward
   towards the IA/MN/WI border area of the MS Valley. Farther east
   towards the Quad Cities, remnant cloud cover from early-day
   convection has slowed destabilization. As such, convection may
   remain tied closely to the surface front and struggle to develop far
   eastward amid the modest mid-level westerly flow sampled by Des
   Moines VWP data. This should result in a predominant multicell
   cluster mode with a corridor of severe hail risk initially with
   locally severe wind gusts possible, especially as storms mature.

   ..Grams.. 07/12/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   42309321 43009233 43419171 43319118 42759111 42199176
               41429256 41249368 41369412 41869413 42309321 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2017
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