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Mesoscale Discussion 1297
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1297
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0319 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 042019Z - 042145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SOME SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
   THE EVENING. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...SLOW-MOVING TSTM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   DEWEY...BLAINE...AND CUSTER COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS
   LOCATED ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE STRETCHING FROM THESE STORMS SEWD
   INTO PUSHMATAHA COUNTY. THIS CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE
   OUTFLOW FROM THE ONGOING STORMS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR
   ADDITIONAL TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS ACROSS THE
   REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S...DEWPOINTS
   IN THE LOW 70S...AND STRONG INSTABILITY /MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES
   MLCAPE OVER 2500 J PER KG/. 

   STRONG UPDRAFTS COUPLED WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES /NEAR THE
   75TH PERCENTILE BASED ON SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY/ WILL LIKELY
   PROMOTE PRECIP LOADING. ADDITIONALLY...MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATED DCAPE
   IS OVER 1500 J PER KG FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. AS SUCH...A DAMAGING
   WIND THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
   INSTABILITY...SOME SVR HAIL IS POSSIBLE TOO. SVR STORM COVERAGE IS
   CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED WITH THE NEED FOR WW UNLIKELY.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 07/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34419810 34809887 35319924 35679921 36139831 35529669
               34809589 34219578 33949665 34419810 

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Page last modified: July 04, 2015
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