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Mesoscale Discussion 1298
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1298
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0613 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

   Areas affected...Northeast Kansas and Northern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122313Z - 130030Z


   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing within an extremely unstable
   environment across northwest Missouri. These will pose an isolated
   large hail and strong, gusty thunderstorm wind threat as they move
   east. The isolated nature of the threat should preclude the need for
   a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing along a weak surface
   boundary draped across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. To
   the south of this boundary, low-level moisture is maximized across
   northwest Missouri, where surface dewpoints are in the mid-to-upper
   70s beneath maximum mid-level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km. This
   combination has resulted in extreme instability (most-unstable CAPE
   values in excess of 4000-5000 J/kg) across northeast Kansas and
   portions of northwest Missouri. Given such values, strong
   thunderstorm updrafts should develop and have the potential for
   large hail and damaging severe thunderstorm winds.  However, these
   thunderstorms are developing along the southern fringes of the
   better deep-layer shear. At present, deep-layer shear across these
   thunderstorms is estimated to be generally at or below 30 knots,
   which would tend to favor multicellular updrafts over isolated,
   longer lived updrafts. This should limit the overall duration of
   severe potential. A watch is currently not anticipated.

   ..Marsh/Edwards.. 07/12/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38629664 39399676 39809621 40169511 40379404 40389307
               40319293 39999241 39349241 38799281 38539453 38399560

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