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Mesoscale Discussion 1298
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0518 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN SD...WRN NEB...AND NERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 042218Z - 050015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WHILE COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE SEVERE
   POTENTIAL IS INCREASING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
   MAIN THREATS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA RADARS SHOW A
   THUNDERSTORM WHICH HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE WRN NEB
   PANHANDLE...WITH ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WWD INTO
   E-CNTRL WY AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF WRN SD. A FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF
   1500-3000 J/KG AND 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
   SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURES ACROSS THE MCD AREA. RELATIVELY
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 DEG C/KM PER RAP
   MESOANALYSIS AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT LARGE
   HAIL..SOME POSSIBLE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...WITH THE
   STRONGEST CORES. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NEAR-DRY ADIABATIC
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD ALSO ENCOURAGE
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNDRAFT WINDS. GIVEN SLY
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO WLY/NWLY...EFFECTIVE SRH OF
   100-150 M2/S2 ACROSS THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE AND INCREASING WITH EWD
   EXTENT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL
   WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS.

   SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
   OVER CANADA REMAINS GENERALLY DISPLACED TO THE N...WITH OROGRAPHIC
   FORCING THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. EVENTUAL
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS EVENING REMAINS
   UNCLEAR...WITH SOME SHORT-TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTING STORMS WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW...AND OTHERS
   SHOWING MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN
   MCS ACROSS SWRN NEB/NERN CO LATER THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS...WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 07/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41030394 42540395 44220346 44420232 44310104 41690090
               40710108 40170199 40360336 41030394 

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