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Mesoscale Discussion 1298
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL NY...CNTRL AND NRN PA...SWRN NEW
   ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 397...

   VALID 072044Z - 072215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 397
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ONGOING IN WW 397 SHOULD CONTINUE
   THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SHORT LINE SEGMENTS HAVE BECOME ORGANIZED THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS WW 397 FROM SOUTHEAST OF BUFFALO NY EWD TO NEAR
   BINGHAMTON NY. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE.
   THE STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ON THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU IN
   SRN NY WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE
   LOCALLY MAXIMIZED. THE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY HAS BEEN COUPLED WITH
   STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF UP TO 8.0 C/KM ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE WATCH. IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...THE LATEST
   WSR-88 VWP AT BINGHAMTON NY SHOWS 30 TO 40 KT OF FLOW NEAR THE TOP
   OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND ABOVE 1 KM. THIS
   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE
   MORE INTENSE MULTICELLS. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS IN AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE THE MOST.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   40967434 40547633 40387762 40667895 41277938 42397888
               42947680 43487350 42567271 41427333 40967434 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2014
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