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Mesoscale Discussion 1299
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1299
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN AND S-CNTRL SD / N-CNTRL NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 072053Z - 072230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER MAY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
   INTENSIFY.  A STRONG WIND GUST OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT
   COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A STRONG STORM OVER BENNETT COUNTY
   SD NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER AROUND 2045Z.  THIS STORM AND SURROUNDING
   ACTIVITY ARE LOCATED ON A SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WITHIN A ZONE OF
   DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
   DAKOTAS.  A DECAYED MCS WITH REMNANT ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NERN
   NEB HAS ACTED TO LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF CAPE DOWNSTREAM OF THE
   SD/NEB STORMS.  A TRAILING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE/OUTFLOW ARCS W
   AND NWWD FROM NERN NEB AND INTERSECTS THE ONGOING STORMS.  OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECTING STORMS TO PREFERENTIALLY DEVELOP ALONG
   THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT.  THE AREA INFLUENCED BY THE EARLIER-DAY
   CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS OVER N-CNTRL NEB CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE 50S AS TEMPS
   RECOVER AND WARM INTO THE MID 80S DEG F.  STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ACT TO
   PARTIALLY OFFSET STABILIZING INFLUENCES DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING
   ACTIVITY AND POTENTIALLY ENABLE A STRONG WIND GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL
   THREAT TO DEVELOP.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 07/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   41540049 42360206 43020225 43170135 42789958 42149964
               41540049 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2014
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