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Mesoscale Discussion 1299
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1299
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0610 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN AL...SWRN GA...AND THE NRN FL
   PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 042310Z - 050115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WHILE A STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD
   CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AT
   THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE MCD AREA WILL
   CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD AROUND 30-35 KT...WITH EMBEDDED CORRIDORS OF
   ENHANCED WINDS PRESENT ON AREA RADARS. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE FORMED
   ALONG A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IN THE FL PANHANDLE. SFC OBSERVATIONS
   IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE LINE OF STORMS INDICATE THE AIRMASS
   REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
   LOWER TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S SUPPORTING MLCAPE OF
   1500-2500 J/KG. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH OVER THE MID-SOUTH REMAINS GENERALLY DISPLACED TO THE N OF
   ONGOING CONVECTION...WITH AREA VWPS DEPICTING WSWLY FLOW OF 25-35
   KT. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL FLOW
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED STRONG TO LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THE STORMS MOVE ACROSS SERN AL INTO SWRN GA
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STORM INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE LATER
   THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND AS THEY
   ENCOUNTER A CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIRMASS OVER S-CNTRL GA. THE
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO NEED A
   WW.

   ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 07/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30638465 30818668 31148691 31688654 32308600 32828598
               33008459 31878416 31028417 30638465 

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Page last modified: July 05, 2015
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