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Mesoscale Discussion 1299
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1299
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0619 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

   Areas affected...north central and northeast Wisconsin through
   southwest Wisconsin and northeast IA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411...

   Valid 122319Z - 130045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for isolated downburst wind and hail will persist
   in the remainder of WW 411 next few hours across northeast WI as
   well as farther southwest from southwest WI into northeast IA. At
   this time overall threat does not appear particularly robust.

   DISCUSSION...Early this evening storms continue developing just
   ahead of a cold front that stretches from north central WI through
   central IA. Objective analysis shows the atmosphere to be moderately
   unstable in this region, but magnitudes could be overestimated to
   some degree with more realistic values from 1500-2500 J/kg. Storms
   developing over northern WI have shown an overall minor decrease in
   intensity. Limiting factors include surface winds veered to
   southwesterly ahead of the cold front which is limiting convergence,
   and modest deep layer wind profiles with 25-40 kt shear as well as
   weak mid-level lapse rates. Moreover, due to earlier widespread
   clouds and convection farther south across the OH valley, only
   partial boundary layer recovery has occurred. Nevertheless, a few
   instances of large hail and downburst winds remain possible before
   threat diminishes later this evening with onset of nocturnal
   cooling.

   ..Dial.. 07/12/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

   LAT...LON   44449017 45658911 45768835 44858803 43158977 42739169
               44449017 

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